Western Political Will and the Long War
State of the War, US and EU Political Will, Message to Constituents, Return on Investment
Dear BWR Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” are “Follow-ups” regarding previous publications and “Quick Bites” briefly addressing emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I discussed the growing threats to Putin’s power: grassroots movements, failing public infrastructure, and deteriorating living standards.
In this week’s BWR, I will discuss the state of the war and what is next. Western political will to support Ukraine is a growing problem. This is a political problem of messaging constituents about the benefits of aid to Ukraine. How does this translate at the kitchen table?
Takeaways:
DURATION OF THE WAR: Western politicians are coming to the realization this will be a long war, at least until 2025. As the Russian 2024 budget showed, Putin is in this for the long haul.
MESSAGE TO CONSTITUENTS: Western politicians must clearly articulate to their constituents the strategy for and goal of aid to Ukraine. They must also translate this into a kitchen table message: "How does Ukraine impact me and my family?”
RETURN ON INVESTMENT: For a fraction of NATO’s annual spending, aid to Ukraine has degraded the Russian armed forces to nearly half of its pre-war capacity. This has been accomplished without a single NATO soldier on the ground.
State of the War:
For Ukraine, the war is an existential threat to its very existence as a country; for Putin, it is an existential threat to his power and probably his life. Putin and his Soviet-era cohorts have never accepted Ukrainian sovereignty as well as Moldovan, Georgian, or Kazakhstani.
Putin lost the war he waged against Ukraine in the first month of the second invasion. He failed to decapitate the Ukrainian government and subjugate the country — as the original plan seems to have been — thanks to the bravery of Ukrainians fighting for their families’ lives, homes, and country. Other determining factors contributing to the immediate failure of the Kremlin’s “Special Military Operation” were:
Flawed FSB Intelligence – Putin was assured the operation would be completed in two weeks and Russian troops would be greeted by mobs of civilians with flowers. This view was evidenced by the parade uniforms in the backpacks of airborne soldiers arriving in Kyiv in the first week.
Overwhelming Western Support – Financial, intelligence, and matériel support to Ukraine has been approximately $200B. The Kremlin did not anticipate this level of support or Western unity. One can argue this was another FSB intelligence failure.
Systemic Government Corruption – Over the past decade, the Kremlin has invested heavily in upgrading its military equipment and troop readiness. How is it that the world’s second most powerful armed forces were unable to conquer a former Soviet state and must now source munitions and equipment from North Korea and Iran? The underperformance of Russian military equipment in this conflict also indicates government corruption in the Defense Ministry.
Coming up to the second anniversary of the February 2022 invasion, Putin’s war has left the Russian armed forces with 315,000 troops dead and wounded (according to the US Defense Dept), thousands of Russian tanks and other military equipment destroyed, the Black Sea fleet taking safe harbor on the eastern shores of the Black Sea because Crimea is under constant threat from Ukrainian armed forces, and munitions stock at its lowest ever, forcing procurements from North Korea.
While all has not gone well for the Kremlin, Putin can count on Western politicians to create opportunities for him to exploit and divide the West. These politicians underestimated Putin’s ability to adapt quickly to Western economic sanctions; Russia is now the most sanctioned country in history, yet the Russian economy is strong. He leverages the lengthy and messy consensus to his advantage. Western governments must reach a consensus on each action they take against Russia. For example, Western foot-dragging in the spring of 2023 over providing Ukraine with much-needed long-range firepower (HIMARS) contributed to the establishment of the formidable Surovikin defensive line: 1,500 miles of entrenched Russian troops along the front line in occupied Ukraine. This changed the battlefield dynamics to Russia’s advantage and contributed to the less-than-desirable results of the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
While the Kremlin’s influence over its near abroad is eroding, it still carries weight in Central Asia and the Caucasus. This is evidenced by the massive spike in trade between Russia and Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, through which critical military-industrial parts are sourced. This also helps the Kremlin prolong the war.
The Kremlin has also established a formidable network of trade relations with other sanctioned countries (Iran and North Korea), as well as “non-aligned” countries such as India, China, and the Arab world. Putin has led Russia away from the G7 - Once the G8 with the inclusion of Russia - into the R3 (Russia, Iran, and North Korea - R for Rogue). Patchy sanctions enforcement and the lucrative business of sanctions evasion have contributed to the establishment of this emerging ecosystem. An example is non-western insurance companies providing fleet coverage for Russia’s shadow fleet. Pre-Russian oil price cap sanctions, 80% of all Russian oil tanker fleet insurance was underwritten by G7 and EU companies. Now, 70% is being underwritten in non-G7 and EU jurisdictions.
On the surface, Putin has managed the battlefield and the economy much better than expected. But while things look good at first glance, weaknesses under the surface can quickly evolve into a black swan event. We have seen these percolate in the form of egg shortages, grassroots protests in Bashkortostan, and the women’s “white scarves” protests over undefined durations of their men at the front line.
Western Political Will and Messaging to Constituents:
US and EU politicians are beginning to realize this will be a long war, meaning the war will last well into 2025. Putin made it clear he was preparing for a long war when his finance minister, Anton Siluanov, presented him with a budget – ultimately approved – last year in which more than 35% of 2024’s expenditures were earmarked for defense and security. He presented the budget with the Soviet slogan “All for the Front, All for Victory.”
Western politicians are accountable to their constituents and must articulate a compelling “business case” for Ukrainian aid vis-à-vis essential domestic spending needs and the consequences of not providing aid. Part of this messaging problem is rooted in the absence of a clear and unified common Western goal and strategy. For example, is aid to defeat Russia or defend Ukraine? The reluctance to provide HIMARS and F-16s indicates the latter would mean a more protracted war and more money.
To date, the West has provided Ukraine with $200B in aid. This represents a fraction of NATO’s total combined defense spending. With this, Ukraine has degraded more than half of Russia’s conventional military capability without sending a single NATO soldier into battle. While this is an incredible return on investment (ROI) recognized by the security and diplomatic communities, it does not necessarily translate into a clear and direct lifestyle improvement for John Smith in Cleveland (OH) or Jürgen Müller in Hamburg. Their immediate concerns are providing for their family, and inflation is the biggest concern. Western politicians must translate this ROI into a message that resonates with their constituents.
While Putin also needs public support, he can manufacture that support in ways unavailable to Western politicians. For example, the state controls traditional media outlets and, to a large extent, social media. This gives the Kremlin an advantage in controlling the narrative consumed by the public.
Now, $61B and €50B in Ukrainian aid is being held up in the US and the EU. The aid packages will most likely be approved in some fashion, but the delays point to growing Western war fatigue and represent an opportunity for the Kremlin to exploit.
Ukrainian aid in the US Congress is bundled with aid to Israel and for border security. While Ukrainian assistance enjoys bipartisan support, a small minority of alt-right obstructionists could derail the funding (in the same way that they ousted their own party’s Speaker of the House). The situation is further complicated by Donald Trump, who appears likely to win the Republican nomination for president, is already exerting his influence by telling Republicans not to pass the funding bill.
In the EU, Viktor Orbán is again extorting ransom from Brussels, as he did in exchange for Swedish NATO approval to approve the aid to Ukraine.
In short, Ukraine will receive aid from the US and the EU. The question is how much and for how long?
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-ups:
Nothing to report this week.
Quick Bites
Boris Nadezhdin – Russian Presidential Hopeful
The anti-war hope-to-be presidential candidate has collected over 200,000 signatures for his candidacy and will submit them to the electoral committee for approval. If approved, Nadezhdin will run as an independent from the Civic Initiative party.
Putin Calls the Downing of a Russian Military Transport Plane a Terrorist Act
A Russian Air Force IL-76 military transport plane, allegedly carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners, was shot down over the border region of Belgorod this week. Ukrainian intelligence claims the transport plane was carrying rockets.
Initial pictures of the crash site posted on Z blogger Telegram channels only show a field of the crashed aircraft and no bodies.
It is ironic Putin calls this a terrorist act while he is bombing Ukrainian civilian neighborhoods and infrastructure.
Vol 2, No 05 - BWR 28.01.2024
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