The Tajikistani Connection
Symbiotic Relationship | Border Security | Remittances and Labor | Radical Islamists
Dear BWR Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” are “Follow-ups” regarding previous publications and “Quick Bites” briefly addressing emerging events.
In last week's BWR, I discussed Georgia’s use of Kremlin-like tactics. The ruling Georgian Dream party proposes Russian-like laws, which have caused civil unrest and brawls in the Georgian Parliament Chamber.
In this week’s BWR, I discuss the symbiotic relationship between Russia and Tajikistan.
Takeaways:
SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP: Russia and Tajikistan are dependent on each other: Russia needs migrant labor, and Tajikistan needs work. The Russian government balances the country's migrant labor needs while also considering the perceived security threat migrant laborers pose. This balancing act plays out via opposing mandates for the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Ministry of Economic Development.
TAJIK ISLAMIC RADICALIZATION: While abject poverty and rampant government corruption are fertile ground for Islamic radicalization, Tajikistan’s population is far from becoming radicalized. While ISIS has been actively recruiting in Central Asia using Tik-Tok and other platforms, their success in radicalizing the population has been limited.
Background:
With a population of 10 million, Tajikistan was the poorest of the Soviet Republics and remains the poorest country in Central Asia today. Abject poverty, particularly in rural areas where 70% of the population resides, and rampant government corruption make it fertile ground for radicalization. However, Tajikistan does not appear to be on the verge of ISIS-like radicalization anytime soon.
After the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, the Soviets constructed artificial borders for the new Soviet Republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus to control the region's multiethnic populations. For example, in 1929, the traditional Tajik (Persian) cultural and population centers of Samarkand and Bukhara became part of the Uzbek SSR, while large pockets of the Kyrgyz and Uzbek populations found themselves part of the Tajik SSR. From these artificial borders arose tension after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Border skirmishes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have taken place as recently as 2021, straining relations between the two Central Asian countries.
Moreover, beginning in 1992, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan experienced a brutal civil war that lasted five years, took an estimated 150,000 civilian lives, and internally displaced nearly 20% of the population. The war had devastating consequences for the educational system and infrastructure, leaving an entire generation of Tajiks unschooled and without clean water and reliable electricity for at least a decade after the war.
Peace was reached in 1997 primarily due to war fatigue, but also pressure from Iran and Russia, supporters of opposing Tajik parties, because they were increasingly concerned about the Taliban’s expansion in Afghanistan.
Tajik Dependence on Security and Economics
Tajikistan today is highly dependent on Russia for border security and remittance money from its labor migrants working in Russia. It is also a primary transit country along the “Northern Route” for Afghan opiates destined for the Russian and Eastern European markets and beyond. In 2018, it was estimated that Afghan opiates transiting Tajikistan represented nearly 30% of the country’s GDP.
From the security perspective, the 7,000 troop Russia’s 201st Motor Rifle Division, based in Dushanbe and part of the Russian Central Asian Military District, is the primary military border assistance offered to Tajikistan in securing its 1,356 KM border with Afghanistan. The 201st Motor Rifle Division has a long history in Central Asia, from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to the Tajik Civil War. Given the demand for troops on the Ukrainian front, the Tajik border is a second priority for Russia, yet an important one given the Islamic terrorist threat, mainly out of Afghanistan. Securing the Tajik Afghan border also comes with the challenge of the inhospitable terrain of a long border crossing mountain range.
In 2023, RBK estimated that some 1.3M Tajik migrants reside in Russia at any given time. In 2022, remittances as a share of Tajik GDP hit a record 51%. Tajikistan’s GDP was $10.5B in 2022.
Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon is the only Central Asian leader who continues to criticize the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. He has been calling for a more inclusive Afghan government and has provided shelter to several former Afghan government leaders, including Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahamd Shah Massoud. Former Vice President Amrulla Saleh is also taking refuge in Tajikistan.
Tajikistan’s frosty relationship with the Taliban has a long history.
In the 1990s, Tajikistan supported the Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud, an ethnic Tajik from the Panjshir Valley. When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Massoud took refuge in the Kulob region of Tajikistan. Massoud would ultimately be assassinated by Bin Laden suicide bombers on September 9, 2001, dying in transit to a Tajik hospital after the bombing. In the ‘00s, it was not uncommon to see portraits of Massoud in Dushanbe and the Tajik provinces of Kulob and Kurgan-Tyube.
Russian Dependence on Tajik Labor
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became increasingly dependent on cheap Central Asian labor. In 2021, Central Asian migrant laborers represented 2.7M of the labor force, an essential resource for the Russian economy amid ongoing labor shortages. The labor shortages have been building for two decades due to Russia’s deteriorating demographics —- aging population and low birth rate — and have only been exacerbated by Putin’s war, which saw more than 1M skilled workers emigrate and some 500,000 young men mobilized. As a result, factories compete for skilled labor, driving up wages and inflation.
As a result of the Crocus Center attack, migrant labor from Tajikistan has dried up. Central Asian countries are warning their citizens not to travel to Russia due to racial discrimination in the aftermath of the attack, allegedly carried out by 12 Tajiks detained by Federal Russian Security Services (FSB). Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin stated:
"…an ill-conceived information campaign creating a negative perception of citizens of Tajikistan and Tajiks"
The Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reported mass refusals of its citizens, mostly young men, to enter Russia.
Tajik Government Corruption
Rahmon and his family own everything of value in the country, including the airlines that transport laborers to and from Russia and the banks that facilitate remittances. In short, the family lives off the backs of its citizens. National carrier Tajik Air (sometimes referred to as “Tragic Air”) is the primary carrier transporting laborers to and from Russia. Somon Air, nominally a private airline, is owned by Rahmon’s brother-in-law, Hasan Asadullozoda, who also owns OrionBank.
The Rahmon family shamelessly flaunts its wealth and power. For example, in 2023, the Tajik government purchased the Mexican presidential plane for $92M. Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sold the Boeing 787 Dreamliner because he believed it was a luxury unbecoming of a Mexican president and reflected the excesses of his predecessors. Rahmmon has no such humility.
Side Notes
Tajikistan is a country with a rich history and beautiful people. It is also home to several Catholic churches.
Far from Stalin's preying eyes, the churches were established by exiled Volga ethnic Germans from Saratov and Samara in the 1930s. Takeaway: Stalin is partially responsible for the spread of Catholicism in Tajikistan.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-ups:
Georgian Rose Revolution – Reloaded?
A loyal and highly respected BWR subscriber (initials MB) thought it appropriate for me to clarify and explain why I rejected the equivalency between the Russian/Georgian Foreign Agent Law and the US Foreign Agent Registration Act. (I concluded that any comparison between these laws is “patently false in both spirit and practice.” )
In spirit and by letter of the law, FARA focuses on lobbyists and lobbying groups, while the Russian Foreign Agent Law covers everyone, especially NGOs—the bill's main target. The Russian and Georgian Foreign Agent Law as the law is written, applies to to entertainers, journalists, and citizens who question the government’s actions. In short, anyone can be labeled a foreign agent including Russian government officials who participated in US foreign exchange programs—yes, I am speaking of none other than the Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan.
The Foreign Agent label is a Stalinist-era label intended to cast shame and doubt on those labeled as such. I have yet to see this practiced in the US based on FARA.
Quick Bites
Kazakhstan Hosts Armenia/Azerbaijan Peace Talks
Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomed hosting peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the foreign ministers’ level.
President Tokayev expressed Kazakhstan’s readiness to assist in facilitating treaty negotiations between the two countries.
During his official visit to Yerevan last month, Tokayev called for establishing a long-term peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“I proceed from the understanding that the upcoming meeting will contribute to the practical implementation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian agreements and will contribute to the soonest establishment of a lasting peace in the South Caucasus,”
Following Kazakhstan’s proposal, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev informed Secretary of State Antony Blinken about the planned meeting in Almaty.
Vol 2, No 22 - BWR 12.05.2024
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