Russo-Ukrainian War Peace Proposals: Rounding Square Pegs for Round Holes
The Peace Plans | Concessions and Concessions | US-Russia Relations Priority No. 1
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In last week’s BWR, I discussed Europe’s future security umbrella—Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Western European defense companies are building plants in Eastern Europe—Ukraine, Poland, and Romania—and integrating them into the European defense manufacturing infrastructure.
In this week’s BWR, I discuss the Trump and EU peace plans, what’s in them, and the challenging road toward a lasting peace. Putin’s grateful response has been a massive air attack on Ukraine.
Takeaways
PEACE PLANS FRAMEWORK—The plans share two common elements: the lack of strong US security guarantees and the freezing of the current frontlines.
TRUMP PEACE PLAN—It is far from a fair and just peace framework and will be a bitter pill for Ukraine and the EU to swallow. The plan heavily favors the Kremlin with territorial and trade concessions before discussions begin.
The Plans
Last week, US President Donald Trump presented his “final peace” plan to the Kremlin, the EU, and Ukraine. The one-page framework peace plan to end Putin’s war on Ukraine resulted from months of US-led negotiations with Russia. The final plan was prepared after US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s recent meeting with Russian President Putin in the Kremlin. Ukrainian and EU officials also presented a peace plan—the Ukrainian-EU plan (UKR/EU)—to counter Trump’s plan, which Ukrainian and EU officials regarded as generously favorable to Russia. The main common element of both plans is the freezing of the current frontlines.
However, the two plans fundamentally differ in their approaches to peace and the value placed on sovereignty and security. Trump’s plan offers immediate concessions to Russia, such as US de jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. In contrast, the EU/UKR plan demands an unconditional ceasefire without upfront concessions. The EU/UKR plan leaves all key variables on the table for discussion once a ceasefire is in place.
The Table below outlines the key variables and differences between the plans.
The EU/UKR plan includes the return of Ukrainian children and the exchange of prisoners, including political prisoners. The plan stems from Zelensky’s five-point initiative, which he unveiled in October 2024; however, only the aspect regarding territorial integrity remains.
The Trump plan is a diluted version of Putin’s maximalist proposal, recognition of the Crimean annexation, and Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO. However, It does not include Putin’s demand that Ukraine be demilitarized nor does it restrict the size of the Ukrainian armed forces or cooperation with other European forces.
While the differences between Russia and Ukraine seem to be narrowing to the point where a fragile ceasefire might be achieved, attaining a lasting peace will be significantly more challenging. Security guarantees and the root cause of the war have yet to be addressed.
Although the EU seems to have finally realized that the US is an unreliable security partner and has begun increasing its defense spending, it will take several years before the EU is in a position to provide the necessary matériel to help Ukraine and provide credible security guarantees.
A lasting peace will require the warring parties to accept and resolve the root cause of Putin’s war. In my 24 March piece, “The Root Cause of Putin’s War: Sovereignty and Agency,” I make the case that Putin and his fellow Kremlin septuagenarians never accepted Ukrainian sovereignty and the sovereignty of other former Soviet states; this is the root cause of Putin’s war. NATO expansion served as a convenient pretext for Putin to wage war on Ukraine, but it is not the root cause of the war. Russia’s eroding influence in its near abroad and generational changes at home fuel Putin’s paranoia that his power is under attack.
Conclusion
In a wide-ranging interview with Zeit media, Ursula von der Leyen, EU President, said
"The West as we knew it no longer exists…Europe is still a peace project. We don't have bros or oligarchs making the rules. We don't invade our neighbours, and we don't punish them."
Her statement goes to the heart of the global paradigm shift driven by Trump’s realpolitik diplomacy regarding security and economics. It is a “What’s in it for me?” and only the strong deserve a place at the table approach. We are seeing it play out in Trump’s Russo-Ukrainian peace plan. Trump has opted to prioritize US-Russia relations over a fair and just settlement for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Trump’s plan largely favors Russia’s interests, provides Putin with up front concessions, and does not provide US security guarantees for Ukraine. The UKR/EU plan relies on European support to bring the war to an end, or keep Ukraine in the fight. The common elements of both plans is lack of robust US security guarantees for Ukraine and the call to freeze the frontlines today.
While the devil is in the details of any peace agreement, the foundational terms and spirit of the agreement are being established with this first peace framework agreement.
It is clear Zelensky wants peace. He has demonstrated this by tolerating Trump’s egotistical antics and meeting with him whenever and wherever possible.
In contract, Putin is not demonstrating a genuinue interest to reach a ceasefire, let alone a peace agreement. Hours after Trump attacked Zelensky for · criticizing his peace proposal, Putin launched a massive missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Kyiv killing 12 people and injuring 70. The attack prompted Trump to post on his “Truth Social’ Platform “Vladimir, STOP!!” Trump’s post was a rare public critique of Putin by Trump.
Additional Reading(s)
Root Cause of Putin’s War: Sovereignty and Agency (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 24 Mar 2025)
Ukraine - Europe’s Protector and Security Umbrella (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 21 Apr 2025)
The West as We Knew It, No Longer Exists (Euro News, 16 Apr 2025)
Trump’s “Final Offer” for Peace (Axios, 22 Apr 2025)
Dividing up the World - Leave Your Values at the Door (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 03 Mar 2025)
Putin’s Unconditional (With Conditions) Ceasefire Negotiations (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 31 Mar 2025)
Bromancing to Peace (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 17 February 2025)
The Curious Case of the Evolving Peace Strategy Over Ukraine (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 06 Apr 2025)
Ukraine’s Crimea Lies at the Heart of Russia’s Invasion—and Trump’s Peace Plan (Wall Street Journal, 25 Apr 2025)
Follow-ups & Quick Bites
Follow-ups
Putin Gifts Trump a Massive Air Attack on Ukraine
The Kremlin rolled out the red carpet of civilian blood for US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to the Kremlin. The day before Witkoff’s arrival for peace negotiations over Putin’s war on Ukriane, the Kremlin launched a massive missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Kyiv killing 12 civilians and injuring 70. Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and other Ukrainian towns were also under attack.
It was one of the biggest attacks on Ukraine in several months. Is Putin sending Trump a message? So much for respect for life and the US president.
Additonial Reading(s)
Russia Launches Huge Attack on Kyiv (Politico, 24 Apr 2025)
Vladimir STOP! (The Guardian, 23 Apr 2025)
Quick Bites
Russian Ammunition Depot Goes KABOOM!
A Russian ammunition depot containing approximately 105,000 metric tons of munitions, including Iskander, Tochka-U, and Kinzhal missiles, exploded in a town 75 kilometers northeast of Moscow.
The authorities declared a local state of emergency in the Kirzhachsky district, which is home to the 51st arsenal of the Russian military’s main missile and artillery directorate. They relocated approximately 500 residents to temporary shelters amid an evacuation order. Gas supplies were cut off to about 40 nearby villages, while 12 settlements remained under emergency orders.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the explosion resulted from safety violations at the base. A similar incident occurred at the depot in 2022, and residents were evacuated following a drone strike last year.
Additional Reading(s)
Russian Ammo depot Explodes (Euromadian Press, 23 Apr 2025)
Another Russian General Bites the Dust
A senior Russian general, Lieutenant-General Yaroslav Moskalik, was killed by a car bomb last week as he was exiting a building in a town on the outskirts of Moscow.
Moskalik was the deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff and had been involved in key military and diplomatic activities. Russian authorities have launched a criminal investigation into the bombing, treating it as a targeted assassination.
The assassination took place the day before President Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
No one has yet taken responsibility for the assassination. However, Ukraine has claimed responsibility for several assassinations in Russia, including the December 2024 killing of General Igor Kirillov.
Unrelated to assassinations, it should be noted that more than 10 Russian generals have been killed on the battlefield since Putin launched his second invasion of Ukraine.
Additional Reading(s)
Russian General Killed in Car Bomb (The Kyiv Independent, 24 Apr 2025)
Vol 3, No 17 - BWR 27.04.2025
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