Dear Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways”on the main topic followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” will be follow-ups from previous publications and emerging events.
In last week’s BWR issue, I discussed Ukraine's EU accession invitation and its economic and political impact on Russia. What are the geopolitical and economic consequences of Ukrainian EU membership for Russia.
This week, given Putin’s presidential pardon of one of the convicted killers of Anna Politkovskaya, a Russian investigative journalist who wrote extensively about the Chechen wars, and the Kremlin’s tepid reaction to the Dagestani airport riot, I will discuss the importance of the North Caucasus and the high price — both financial and in terms of limitations on autonomy — Putin pays for the fragile peace in this part of the Russian Federation, at least for now.
My Takeaways:
SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP: The mutual dependence between President Putin and Chechen President Kadyrov for peace and treasure is significant, particularly now as Putin’s war strains the Russian budget and Russian armed forces. As a famous poet once said, “Sleep with one eye open and grip your pillow tight.”
COST: Putin pays generous subsidies to the region and grants leaders the autonomy to govern as they see fit, particularly in Chechnya. Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov projects significant power across the region and into the South Caucasus.
BENEFITS: The return on investment is peace and stability in the North Caucasus. Kadyrov is the guarantor of Russian territorial integrity in a region with a history of rebellion and separatist movements.
Background
The Caucasus is a mosaic of cultures, languages, and religions, reflecting centuries of ebb and flow of empires crisscrossing the region. The Persian, Ottoman, Russian, and British empires have all left their marks, and they continue to influence the region today, particularly Russia, Iran, and Türkiye.
Russia has fought many wars, both with the Ottomans and indigenous groups, for control over this region. The most recent unrest was the two bloody Chechen wars of independence between 1994-2009 (with a brief period of peace from 1996-1999).
The first Chechen war (1994-1996) was led by Dzhokhar Dudayev, who was ultimately killed by a Russian missile that locked onto his cell phone while he was on a hilltop. Before leading the fight for Chechen independence, he was the commander of the Soviet air division in Tartu (Estonia). He was credited for refusing to suppress the uprisings in Estonia at the time of the Soviet collapse. For his refusal to act against Baltic citizens, plaques and monuments in his honor have been erected in Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and Poland.
The second Chechen war was launched in 1999 by then-Prime Minister Putin in response to Chechen separatist incursions into Dagestan and the bombings of three apartment complexes in Moscow, killing more than 350 people as they slept. Putin immediately blamed the Chechen separatists for the bombings and launched strikes against Grozny, the Chechen capital. By the end of the second military phase of the Chechen war, Grozny had been leveled, and thousands of Chechen civilians had been killed.
Anna Politkovskaya was a prominent Russian journalist who wrote critically and extensively about the Chechen wars and how Putin used them to reverse democratic governance. In her 2004 book, “Putin’s Russia”, she wrote:
"We are hurtling back into a Soviet abyss, into an information vacuum that spells death from our own ignorance. All we have left is the internet, where information is still freely available. For the rest, if you want to go on working as a journalist, it's total servility to Putin. Otherwise, it can be death, the bullet, poison, or trial—whatever our special services, Putin's guard dogs, see fit."
She was murdered in a contract hit in 2006, in the stairwell of her apartment building, on Putin’s birthday. It is not uncommon in Russia for contract killings, invasions, or significant events to take place on anniversaries. Last week, Putin granted a presidential pardon to one of the six Chechens convicted of murdering Politkovskaya. The pardon was based on his voluntary service in Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Russia’s success in the second Chechen war contributed to Putin’s rise to power. Putin launched the second Chechen war in 1999, and Akhmad Kadyrov, then the Chechen Chief Mufti, offered his services to the Russian government. Putin then appointed him president of Chechnya in 2000, and he was assassinated by separatist insurgents during a victory day celebration in 2004. Putin then appointed Ramzan, Akhmad’s son, to succeed his father as Chechen president.
Today, Russia's North Caucasus Federal District includes seven federal subjects: Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Stavropol, and Kabardino-Balkaria. It has a population of approximately 9.7 million inhabitants with an average age in the early 30s and a higher fertility rate than the federal average (2.4 per woman vs 1.5 for all of Russia).
However, the North Caucasus is also one of the poorest regions of Russia, with high youth unemployment (16%) and a government budget that is 80% funded by the Kremlin. In comparison, overall unemployment in Russia is 3% as of October 2023.
The Costs, Risks, and Benefits of the North Caucasus
The Costs and the Risks
The Russian federal budget is difficult to decipher; however, the region has commanded approximately 6% ($5B) of federal budget expenditures based on previous years. These include direct subsidies and project investments in the region. Of this amount, Chechnya and Dagestan receive nearly half of the total allotment, not including off-budget and indirect financing of projects. Many critics believe this is a disproportionately large amount of money compared to other regions with larger populations.
As reported by The Moscow Times, in a live social media stream shared by RIA-Novosti in January 2022, Kadyrov stated:
“I swear to the almighty Allah, we won’t be able to last three months — not even a month… without Russia's financial backing."
Ramzan Kadyrov has been given free rein to govern since he was appointed Chechen president. While Chechnya applies and is subject to Russian law, Chechnya has implemented some aspects of Sharia law related to social and moral issues. This is done through edicts issued by Kadyrov—for example, the banning of alcohol, the endorsement of honor killings, and the encouragement of polygamy.
A significant and constant concern for the Kremlin is the number of fighters recruited from the North Caucasus by ISIS during the terrorist organization's prime. In full swing, fighters from the North Caucasus represented ISIS’ largest group of foreign fighters — an estimated 4,000-5,000. The majority came from Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. It is believed that ISIS' success in drawing recruits from the region stemmed from the pre-existing Islamic insurgencies, high unemployment, and poverty in the region. Many of these fighters have returned to the North Caucasus, are now unemployed, or fighting in Ukraine.
Another concern for the Kremlin, as rumors swirl around Kadyrov’s health, is his succession. Kadyrov has been grooming Akhmat Ramzanovich Kadyrov, the eldest of his three sons, for public office and the presidency. In this spirit, 17-year-old Akhmat was appointed by his father as the republic’s representative on the "All-Russian Public-State Movement of Children and Youth," “Movement of Firsts,” and an Advisor to the President of Chechnya - his father. What exactly he is advising his father on is unclear. In these official capacities, Akhmat met Putin one-on-one in the Kremlin. It should be noted that all three of Kadryov’s sons have served in Ukraine, albeit far from the front lines. Nevertheless, they allegedly managed to capture Ukrainian soldiers to present to their father upon their return to Grozny.
With the Russian federal budget under pressure to fund Putin’s war on Ukraine, Kadryov and other North Caucasus leaders will certainly extract additional funding from the center on the premise of security needs to fight Islamist radicals, as well as much-needed investments in the region. Sergei Melikov, head of the Republic of Dagestan, is already requesting additional funds for security because of the anti-Israeli riots at the airport two weeks ago.
The Benefits
Kadyrov has delivered peace and stability in Chechnya, and his influence projects across the north Caucasus. While there have been occasional protests in Dagestan and Ingushetia, these protests have been limited to local social issues and have rarely been anti-government.
Strategically, the North Caucasus is important to Russia because of its proximity to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and Iran. It also provides access to the Sea of Azov and the Black and Caspian Seas. It is also resource-rich, with oil reserves in Dagestan and Chechnya. Dagestan is also a transit stop on the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline.
The most important benefit is securing the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. A sovereign Chechnya, Dagestan, or any other North Caucasus territory would propagate the independence ideology to other parts of the Russian Federation, as it happened in the 1990s and early 2000s, something Putin can ill afford as his war continues in Ukraine.
Conclusion:
Putin and Kadyrov's relationship is mutually beneficial, with assured destruction. As a modern famous poet once said, "Sleep with one eye open and grip your pillow tight."
Rumors of Kadyrov’s ill health and his occasional musings on retirement likely send shivers down the spine of Putin and his fellow siloviki. Kadyrov has been critical to the region's peace and suppressing separatist movements. Kadyrov’s repressive regime and iron fist keep the centuries-old and deep-seated separatist ideology from percolating into the open and taking root into an organized movement. While a generation has passed since the Chechen wars, it has not been forgotten in this culture of an eye for an eye.
At the moment, no one else in the region has the power to keep the peace in Chechnya and the North Caucasus. Lately, Kadyrov has begun to groom his 17-year-old son Akmad to be his successor, including organizing a one-on-one meeting with Putin in the Kremlin the day before the young man’s wedding. According to Russian law, governors or equivalents must be a minimum of 25 years old to be appointed.
Watch the North Caucasus space as Putin’s war continues to drain treasure and blood.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-Ups:
All quiet on the Western front
Quick Bites:
Russian Inflation Accelerates to 6.7% ahead of the Presidential Election(s)
Russia's annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.7% in October as the Ruble weakened and military spending heats up the economy. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has increased interest rates to 15% and imposed capital restrictions on exporters generating foreign currency revenues in an effort to curb inflation.
With the presidential election coming in March, the Kremlin is more concerned the mood of citizens over the rising cost of living as it may impact voter turnout.
October's annual inflation rate of 6.7% was up from 6% in September and is the highest level since February. The CBR’s official inflation rate target is 4%.
Igor Girkin (AKA Strelkov) Launches Campaign for Presidential Candidacy
The Russian Movement for Strelkov released a letter by Strelkov asking his supporters to start collecting signatures for his presidential candidacy. In his letter, he stated:
“all Russian patriotic forces, societal and political organizations…This is our chance to unite in the face of external and internal threats…”
Strelkov was arrested in July and charged with extremism over social media posts calling for Putin’s removal, among other anti-Putin statements.
Strelkov was convicted in absentia and sentenced to life by a Dutch court for the murder of 298 people in the tragic downing of Malaysian Airlines flight 17 over the Russian-occupied Ukrainian Donbas.
2024 will be an exciting global election cycle of presidential candidates under criminal indictments or running their campaigns from jail cells in the US and Russia.
Vol 1, No 20 - BWR 19.11.2023
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.