Russia’s Near Abroad is in Play – Influence Competition
The Players and Influencers for the Near Abroad. How Does This Impact Russia and The Region?
Dear Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways”on the main topic followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” will be follow-ups from previous publications and emerging events.
In the previous issue, I discussed Western Companies Exiting the Russian Market…Not so Easy. The terms of exit for companies originating from “friendly” vs “unfriendly” countries, the cost, and the economic impact.
This week’s issue focuses on the competition for influence over the Near Abroad, specifically Central Asia and the Caucasus and particularly the use of government organizations created by Russia and others to project influence in Russia’s “Near Abroad”.
My Takeaways:
INDEPENDENCE: The former Soviet republics – from Ukraine to Kazakhstan – will continue to take control of their own destiny and grow away from Russia;
ECONOMICS: Compared to China, Türkiye, and Iran, Russia’s value as a trading and security partner is diminishing. We see this in Russia’s relationship with Armenia and Kazakhstan and the growing influence of China and Türkiye in the region;
EMPIRE SETS: The Near Abroad concept, like the Monroe Doctrine, is not an effective foreign policy in todays’ world. Capturing the hearts and minds of those whom you want to influence, is effective. The former Soviet republics are not parties to the near abroad concept and have options outside of Russia. Just as the sun set on the Persian and Ottoman Empires, it also set on the Russian empire…30 years ago.
Players and Influencers in the “Near Abroad"
Russia
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has tried to maintain influence over the former Soviet states — referred to by Russian politicians as the “Near Abroad” — partially through the establishment of regional organizations. These organizations have rotating presidencies filled by the member states, but in practice they are led by Russia. The two most active and prominent of these organizations are the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). They are modeled after the European Union and NATO, respectively. For example, the EAEU, established in 2014, has pushed for collective trade agreements with Asian countries but this has not precluded them from entering into bi-lateral agreements with its members. The CSTO is a collective security arrangement and contains the Article 4 clause equivalent to NATO’s article 5, stating a military attack on one is an attack on all. Article 4 is currently an issue of contention between Armenia and the Russian led CSTO as it relates to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia is a CSTO member and Azerbaijan is not. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan invoked Article 4 in response to Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenia and the CSTO response has been underwhelming. A fact-finding team will be dispatched by the CSTO and that is all.
An important feature of membership in both organizations is an exclusivity requirement. This clause was at the heart of Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution sparked by President Yanukovych’s decision to step away from a planned EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and to seek closer ties with Russia.
The EAEU member states are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. CSTO members include the same four countries plus Tajikistan and Armenia. (This leaves four former Soviet republics — Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan — outside of both organizations.)
Another aspect of influence — one given less attention recently — is the “Russkiy Mir” (Russian World) ideology formalized by the Kremlin in 2007. This approach revolves around uniting the multiple countries via their shared Russian-language heritage.
United States
In 2015, the US established the C5+1, comprised of five Central Asian countries – Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan – and the US. Since establishment, the foreign ministers of the member states have met each year to discuss economic and security issues. However, the most recent meeting in New York comprised of the presidents of the member states.
(Source: US State Dept.)
In the Caucasus, the US has been active for decades implementing economic development and other programs through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). More recently, the US conducted military exercises – Eagle Partner 2023 – with Armenia. These exercises took place in early September, weeks before the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict flared up again over the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
(Source: US Army)
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently said Moscow was either "unable or unwilling" to honor its commitment to maintain the peace and control the Lachin corridor that connects Armenia with the separatist region. In 2020, Russia brokered a ceasefire to end the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and maintains 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in the region. On 12 September 2023, PM Pashinyan invoked article 4 of the CSTO to no avail.
China
In May 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the first China-Central Asia Summit in the Chinese city of Xi’an with the presidents of five Central Asian countries. This was the first time such a meeting took place without a Russian presence.
(Source: China Central Asia Summit)
China has invested heavily into Central Asia through its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and has expanded trade. China’s trade with the five Central Asian countries reached $70B in 2022.
China is the largest trading partner for Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan and the second largest for Kazakhstan. President Xi announced the launch of the BRI in Kazakhstan in 2013, and since then, BRI has invested billions of dollars into infrastructure development in Central Asia and Caucasus.
(Source: US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee 2023)
BRI is heavily invested in Tajikistan. As illustrated by the map above, over 50% of Tajikistan’s $67B in foreign debt is held by China. China and Tajikistan have signed over 44 infrastructure projects ranging from power stations to railroads since the launch of BRI.
It should be noted that Central Bank of Kazakhstan and the Peoples Bank of China have signed a memorandum of cooperation for clearing Renminbi (RMB) in Kazakhstan. This will make RMB settlement efficient and seamless for Kazakhstan, strengthening trade relations between the two countries as Kazakhstan continues to be an important energy source for China.
Türkiye and Iran
The vortex of empires collapsing in the early 20th century – Russian, Ottoman, and Persian – and the emergence of the Soviet Union turned the cosmopolitan and economically thriving trans-Caucasus region into one filled with bitter ethnic divides and poverty. It also resulted in the systemic genocide of Armenians from Constantinople to Baku and the on-going conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, a problem that warrants a series of essays.
Fast forward to 2023, the historical interests of these dead empires are manifesting themselves in historical alliances. Armenia balances its own self-interest with its allies, Russian and Iran, who are aligned against Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The Soviet Union kept a lid on these local rivalries in a manner similar to how Tito managed the Balkans – through strength and control. Russia has struggled to arbitrate and control the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, because it no longer has the political and economic influence over the region that it once had. As a result, the power vacuum is being filled by the US, Türkiye, and Iran.
How Does This Impact Russia and The Region?
Russia’s dominant influence over the Near Abroad has been eroding for two decades. Its influence in the region has been diminished by its own weakening economic and military position, growing confidence in the region’s sovereign states, changing demographics, and the attractive economic and security propositions being offered by other powers – Türkiye, US, and the EU – compared to what Russia is offering.
Under Putin’s 23 years of rule, Russia has failed to win the hearts and minds of the near abroad – its leaders and general population. This failure is both on the security and economic level. Russia’s inability to enforce security agreements, and in many cases violating agreements (Georgia and Ukraine), sends a clear message that Russia is an unreliable security partner. From the economic side, Russia continues to be an important trading partner but western sanctions and growing trade relations with more reliable trade partners are compelling options. It decreases and increases their dependance on, and leverage over, Russia respectively. The relationships between China and Kazakhstan as well as Türkiye and Azerbaijan are good examples.
Central Asia and Caucasus will continue to grow more independent from Russia as their trade and security relationships grow with each other and outside powers like China, US, and Türkiye. Their growing independence and relationship with outside powers will continue to weaken Russia's influence in the Near Abroad as well as globally.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-Ups:
Ukraine Strikes Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters
As predicted in the 2 September 2023 issue of BWR “Drone Strikes in Russian and the Ukraine Counter-Offensive”, Ukrainian drone and missile strikes into Russia and Russian-occupied territories are now a common feature of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. On Friday (22 Sep) Ukrainian armed forces struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters located in Russian occupied Sevastopol (Crimea) with two consecutive missile attacks – double tap.
Quick Bites:
Armenia and Azerbaijan - Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Continues
Azerbaijan launched attacks and seized territory inside of Armenia.
(Source: CSTO)
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan invoked (Video) article 4 of the CSTO agreement on 13 September without results from the Russian led security organization. A ceasefire was finally called on 14 September after approximately 200 Armenian, Azeri, and Russian soldiers were killed in the short conflict.
This problem will flare up again before the year-end and it continues to strain Russian-Turkish relations given the Turkish support for Azerbaijan.
New Book Releases
It gives me great pleasure to recommend two recently released books about two important periods of Russian history – the Bolshevik revolution and the early days of post-Soviet era market economy.
“Into Russia’s Cauldron – An American Vision, Undone” by Steven Fisher, a banker who worked in Russia and the near abroad for many years. It is a fascinating true story of Leighton W. Rogers, drawn directly from his own handwritten personal journal founded in the Library of Congress more than a century later, about his experience in 1916 revolutionary Russia as he was assigned to open the precursor to CitiBank in Russia. It is a wonderful read and a time traveling experience.
“Creating the Post-Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American Eyes (Routledge Studies in US Foreign Policy)” by Daniel Satinsky, an experienced Russia expert and businessman. The book is a work of passion, that captures the essence of the late Soviet and post-Soviet Russia. Through interviews of Russians and Americans who collaborated, he gives life to what was happening in those optimistic days of building a democratic and capitalist Russia.
Vol 1, No 12 - BWR 23.09.2023
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.