Russia’s Eroding Influence in the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan
Russian Led Multilateral Organizations | Shifting Alliances in the South Caucasus
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In last week’s BWR, I discussed the Kremlin’s growing debt and responsibility toward war veterans. The economic and social costs the government faces as soldiers reintegrate into society will be a significant challenge.
In this week’s BWR, I will discuss Russia’s eroding influence with Azerbaijan as a case study of its waning power not only in the South Caucasus but also across its near abroad. Who is benefiting from this decline, and how are the alliances shifting?
Takeaways
FOREVER NEIGHBORS—It’s a tough neighborhood, and moving isn’t an option. Peace with one’s nemesis may be the only option to escape from another.
SOVERIGNTY AND AGENCY—Azerbaijan has found a formula for escaping the Russian orbit of influence. Can other “Near Abroad” states employ a similar strategy?
ERODING INFLUENCE—Azerbaijan and Syria illustrate Russia’s waning influence, partly due to Putin’s war draining Russia’s resources.
As Mr. Rogers, the child psychologist and producer of the American children’s series Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood, used to say,
It’s a beautiful day in this neighborhood,
A beautiful day for a neighbor.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?
This is not the state of affairs in Russia’s near abroad and the South Caucasus. It’s a tough neighborhood, and all the neighbors are permanent.
Since the Bolshevik Revolution, the Soviet Union established and led nine different multilateral organizations focused on prioritizing its security, economic interests, and political unity within its sphere of influence from Europe to the Americas and Africa. Many of these organizations dissolved after the Soviet Union collapsed, such as the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) and the Warsaw Pact, while others continued by reinventing themselves—like the International Investment Bank and the International Bank for Economic Cooperation.
Since the Soviet collapse over 30 years ago, Russia has inherited much of its legacy in global relationships and has actively worked to restore influence over former Soviet states and partner nations, especially in its “near abroad.” The most relevant and active institutions outside of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have been the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). These organizations have had limited success and influence in the former Soviet space and its near abroad.
The Growing Rift with Azerbaijan
It is worth noting that Azerbaijan is not a member of any of these newly established Russian-led economic or security organizations; however, Armenia is a member of two — CSTO and EAEU.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan invaded the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh with Turkish political support as well as Turkish and Israeli supplied drones, and seized control of the disputed region. Armenia requested CSTO intervention under Article 4 (similar to NATO’s Article 5 clause), but the CSTO, led by Russia, refused to provide military assistance, citing technicalities, internal divisions, and geopolitical interests. This inaction has led Armenia and other CSTO members to question the value of the security organization, which is led by Russia, to the point that Armenia has cancelled its participation in several CSTO events and activities.
Historically, for decades, the Kremlin has used the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to exert influence over the two regions, usually favoring Armenia. However, this time, the Kremlin did not have the military or political resources to support Armenia because everything had been deployed to its war in Ukraine. Another factor was Russia’s growing dependence on Türkiye for Russian exports, and increasingly, on Azerbaijan for natural gas exports. Economic relationships, Russia was not in a position to jeopardize over Armenia.
On Christmas Day, 2024, a Russian air defense missile mistakenly shot down Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 while it was in a routine landing pattern approaching Grozny (Chechnya) airport. After being hit and reportedly subjected to electronic warfare that disabled its communications, the plane was denied landing in Grozny and ultimately crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev to apologize for the incident that occurred in Russian airspace but stopped short of admitting that Russian air defense shot the plane down.
According to Baku, Aliyev had "emphasized" to Putin that the plane was hit by external interference over Russia, saying it wanted those responsible to be held accountable." Initially, the Kremlin’s claim that the plane struck a flock of birds, a “лапшу на уши (lapshu na ushi)” story that was flatly rejected by Aliyev. The Azeri Airlines flight 8243 incident marked a turning point in Russian-Azeri relations, which appears to be deteriorating further.
This past week, Russian internal security forces conducted several raids on ethnic Azeris living in Yekaterinburg and Moscow, resulting in two Azeri deaths after being beaten by Russian authorities. The video above shows the arrest of Azeri mafia boss (вор в законе/Thief in law) Vagif Suleymanov. In the video, masked officers ask him,
Russian Officer: "Are you a criminal authority? A thief? Are you a thief-in-law?"”
Suleymanov: “I don’t respond to such questions.”
The Azeri authorities responded by detaining several Russians, who, based on video releases, seem to have been beaten, as well as canceling Russian cultural events and diplomatic meetings scheduled for the week. The Azeri security services also arrested the Russian journalists Yevgeny Belousov, editor-in-chief of Sputnik Azerbaijan, and Igor Kartavykh, director of the editorial board.
Growing Independence and Shifting Alliances
Azerbaijan exercises more independence from Russia as it strengthens its relationships with Türkiye, the US, and the EU. Türkiye sources 23% of its natural gas from Azerbaijan, and this mutually beneficial dependence is growing. The two countries are also vested in developing the Middle Corridor trade route, which competes with Russia’s favored Northern Corridor. A casualty of the recent detention and death of Azeris in Russia at the hands of Russian authorities was the cancellation of discussions in Baku with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk regarding the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory «Zangezur» Corridor. Overchuk oversees Russian projects related to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev are making progress toward peace. Normalizing relations with Azerbaijan, as unexpectedly as it once seemed, could lead to improved ties with Türkiye. Normalizing relationships between Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia would essentially exclude Russia from the region and alter the current regional security setup, resulting in increased Western influence at Russia’s expense. Türkiye’s regional presence, again, at Moscow’s expense.
It should be noted that China is also gradually reducing Russia’s influence in the near abroad through its Belt and Road initiative, as well as being a co-founder of the SCO. This is particularly true in Central Asia.
Conclusion
The Kremlin has invested political and financial capital in new multilateral security and economic arrangements to regain influence over its near abroad and former Soviet states. However, the returns on this investment have been modest at best. Russia simply lacks the economic power to generate the financial and political resources needed to buy and maintain alliances, unlike the Soviet Union at its peak or the US and China today. Moreover, Putin’s war is draining all of its resources, leaving nothing for building sustainable multilateral organizations and global partnerships.
Russia’s worsening relationship with Azerbaijan illustrates its eroding influence in its near abroad and shows that the beneficiaries of this trend are not only the former Soviet states gaining agency and independence but also Russia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic rivals - Türkiye, the US, and China.
Azerbaijan has developed a strategy to sidestep Russian influence by leveraging its natural resources and forming alliances with regional and global powers. Can other former Soviet states adopt the same approach? Armenia and Georgia tried, but without success.
Additional Reading(s)
Russia’s Near Abroad is in Play – Influence Competition (Barbershop Whispers…Russia 23 Sep 2023)
There’s an alternative to Russian-based trade routes—but it needs support from the US, EU, and Turkey (The Atlantic Council, 22 May 2024)
Why Did Russia Sell Out Armenia – Inability or Unwillingness? (Barbershop Whispers…Russia 01 Oct 2023)
Assad Asks for Troops, Putin Sends a Plane (Barbershop Whispers…Russia 15 Dec 2024)
Azerbaijan Passenger Jetliner Crash Suggests Russia Missile Strike (NPR, 27 Dec 2024)
Follow-ups & Quick Bites
Follow-ups
Slovakia Vetoes 18th EU Sanctions Package
The European Union cannot pass the recently proposed 18th package of Russian sanctions because of vetoes from Slovakia and Hungary.
Slovakia emphasizes that it cannot support the new restrictions until it receives guarantees to mitigate the impact of halting gas imports from Russia. In addition to facing higher energy costs, Slovakia could be subjected to a legal suit and fines for non-compliance with its agreement with Gazprom, which expires in 2034, estimated at €20 billion. While Slovakia has outlined its demands in return, Hungary remains vague.
Both Slovakia and Hungary heavily rely on Russian natural gas to power their manufacturing sectors.
Additional Reading(s)
The Right of Veto: Slovakia Intends to Exchange Veto for Gas Guarantees (Izvestia, 03 Jul 2025)
Quick Bites
Major General Mikhail Gudkov Meets His Maker - A Ukrainian Missile
Major General Mikhail Gudkov, a deputy commander of the Russian Navy, was delivered to his maker by a Ukrainian missile, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense media outlet, Zvezda.
Gudkov is the twelfth Russian general killed in Putin’s War. Ten other senior military officers were killed in the missile strike on their command post, likely due to security breaches stemming from cell phone calls from the command post located in Korenevo, approximately 30KM from the Ukrainian border.
Gudkov previously commanded the Russian Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, based in the Primorsky Krai, before being promoted to deputy Navy chief in March.
Putin has regularly praised the 155th brigade, including at his year-end press conference in December.
Additional Reading(s)
Russian Deputy Commander Killed in Air Strike in Kursk (The Guardian, 03 Jul 2025)
Moscow is the First to Recognize the Taliban Government of Afghanistan
Russia’s decision to be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan is mostly symbolic.
“Recognition of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is, one way or another, no more than a symbolic gesture, underscoring the friendly nature of relations between Moscow and Kabul at a time when the Kremlin is losing allies on the international stage,”
said Ruslan Suleymanov, an expert on Central Asia.
According to Russian Ambassador to Kabul Dmitry Zhirnov, the decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was made by President Vladimir Putin at the suggestion of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Zhirnov added that the move “demonstrates Russia’s sincere desire to build a full-fledged partnership with Afghanistan.”
Vol 3, No 28 - BWR 06.07.2025
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