Dear Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” will be follow-ups from previous publications and emerging events.
In last week’s BWR issue, I discussed the growing importance of the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) to Russia’s economy and Putin’s effort to achieve economic independence from the West.
In this week’s BWR, I will discuss EU accession talks with two former Soviet states, EU and US aid to Ukraine—words and actions matter to the ears of authoritarians.
My Takeaways:
Milestone Event: EU agreed to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and grant EU candidate status to Georgia, despite opposition from Hungary's Orbán. This is more than symbolic; it is a significant achievement for the three countries. Former Soviet states exercising their sovereignty has always been the Kremlin’s greatest fear.
Ukraine Funding: The EU and US Congress are facing pushback from minority opponents over €50B and $61B funding, respectively, for Ukraine. Hungarian PM Orbán and a small group of Republicans – ironically the party of Reagan – Are blocking funds and sending Putin a message of Western fatigue—words and action matter to the ears of authoritarians.
EU Accession: Ukraine and Moldova’s road to EU accession faces internal and external obstacles. For example, internal corruption will be a challenge, albeit being addressed. External challenge will be the likes of Orbán, who depends on Russian energy. Orbán can still derail EU accession.
In Brussels this week, the European Union (EU) leaders convened and agreed to start accession discussions with Ukraine and Moldova and granted EU candidate status to Georgia. The EU Ukraine facility package of €50B was blocked by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. Congress has yet to pass the $61B assistance for Ukraine requested by President Biden.
Orbán, who has close ties to Russia and depends on 80% of its energy, has been, and continues to be, the primary roadblock for Ukrainian/EU accenssion talks and Ukraine funding. The EU accession talks were approved only because Orbán abstained by leaving the room when the vote was made. A tactic allegedly proposed by Orbán himself, as reported by Politico.
Moscow reacted harshly to the EU's decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and make Georgia a formal EU candidate. Russian Presidential Spokesman Dimitri Peskov stated:
“This is absolutely a politicized decision – the EU’s desire to support these countries in this way. But certainly, such new members can actually destabilize the EU….Everything is being done to annoy Russia and antagonize these countries towards Russia,”
The commitment to open accession talks with Kyiv is an essential boost for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. It affirms the EU member states’ support for Ukraine, particularly when Western backing for Ukraine’s war effort appears to be weakening. It is also a tremendous boost for him at home as the war drags on. However, it must be noted that war fatigue is not an option when fighting for family, home, and country.
EU accession talks are a significant achievement and more than symbolic. This is the culmination of the Maidan Revolution and the Ukrainians’ decision to align with Europe rather than Russia. It is also precisely what the Kremlin fears: a former Soviet republic successfully asserting its sovereignty, a sovereignty that the Soviet-era septuagenarians of the Kremlin have never recognized. Russia’s “Near Abroad is in Play”.
If the EU had not delivered on this expectation, it would have been the second time this year that Ukraine’s overture to integration into the West would have been pushed back and would have been a painful blow to Zelensky. The first was at NATO’s summit in Vilnius when NATO released the following timid statement on Ukraine’s NATO membership:
“NATO will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.”
Ukraine’s road to EU accession will not be easy. It will be filled with obstacles, particularly from Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another energy dependent of the Russian state. Both have ample room to stall and derail the talks if they choose to do so. The other hurdle will be Ukrainian government corruption. While it appears that Zelensky is making progress on this issue, as demonstrated by the dismissal of various senior government officials, there is still work to be done. Ironically, Orbán has cited corruption as a concern, while Hungary ranks 77 out of 180 countries on Transparency International. Ukraine and Russia rank 116 and 134, respectively.
The EU agreed to call an emergency summit early next year to work out the proposed €50B Ukraine funding package, blocked only by Orbán. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen vowed to find an "operational solution" to Orbán's veto.
Orbán, in an interview with Hungarian state radio, linked the Ukraine funding to billions of € due to Hungary but which have been frozen by Brussels because of democratic backsliding and corruption concerns. Orbán said:
"This is a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it should get what it deserves,…we want to be treated fairly, and now there is a good chance that we can assert this.”
On Wednesday of this week, the EU released €11.7B of blocked cohesion funds; however, Hungry may be entitled to €30B in cohesion money if certain milestones are achieved.
According to ifw Kiel Insitute for the World Economy, the EU and US have provided Ukraine with €84.9B and €71.4B in aid, respectively. Most of the EU funding has been from Brussels, but there are also many bilateral agreements with EU member states providing military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine—for example, Leopard tanks from Germany and F-16s from Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. A training facility to train Ukrainian pilots has been set up in Romania.
The €50B aid package being blocked by Orbán comprises loans, grants, and technical assistance to support and rebuild the Ukrainian economy. The Kremlin praised Orbán’s decision to block the aid in a statement by Peskov:
“Budapest, in contrast to many European countries, firmly defends its interests, which impresses us."
According to Congressional records, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.7B of military funding since the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 up until October 2023, of which $43.9B has been provided since February 2023.
The new $61B Ukraine funding proposed by President Biden, which is now languishing in a dysfunctional Congress, includes $44B in military aid. Ukraine's funding package has been held up by a small group of Republicans who have refused to approve the package without Democrats agreeing to a significant toughening of immigration law. The immigration laws of the US have not been properly addressed by American politicians for more than 30 years – a story for someone else to write with an understanding of American politics – not me.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with lawmakers at the Capitol this past week to make his case for the funding requested by Biden but emerged from the meetings without Republican commitments.
Before arriving in Washington, D.C., Zelensky attended the inauguration of Javier Milei as president of Argentina. Orbán was also at the inauguration, and Zelensky confronted him in a heated exchange.
Milei expressed support for Zelensky in his fight against Russia to regain occupied territory during their meeting in Buenos Aires.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-ups:
The Highly Contested Russian Election is Officially On
Putin announced his decision to run for the presidency in a “spontaneous” choreographed conversation with a soldier from Donbas during a ceremony honoring “Heroes of the Fatherland Day.”
The event reminded me of a popular late 90s NTB political satire series written by Viktor Anatolyevich Shenderovich when Russia had independent media. The series is called “Puppets,” and this episode came to mind. “First Night/ Куклы – Первая ночь”. The story is about Putin’s arranged marriage with the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation is depicted as a lovely woman who, in the end, cries tears of blood into a bowl.
Russia's Central Bank (CBR) Raises Key Rate to 16%
The CBR raised its key interest rate to 16%, announcing a fifth hike since summer in a bid to fight accelerating inflation.
The central bank has been grappling with high inflation since the start of the second invasion.
Quick Bites
Long Live the Woolly Mammoth!
At COP28, Russian billionaire Andrei Melnichenko's booth displays plans to bring back to life the prehistoric woolly mammoths and bring them to the frozen wastes of Siberia to stop the permafrost melting, which would be a climate catastrophe.
In a real-life version of Jurassic Park, the Russian businessman proposes creating “Pleistocene Park” by using DNA from mammoths frozen in the ice and recreating the beasts that roamed the region over 14,000 years ago.
There are many ways to support the environment, but this one is out of reach and filled with unintended problems. Just saying.
Vol 1, No 24 - BWR 17.12.2023
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.