Dear BWR Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” are “Follow-ups” regarding previous publications and “Quick Bites” briefly addressing emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I discussed the strategic importance of the Black Sea – Ukrainian agricultural exports via, and the Russian navy’s weakened presence in, the Black Sea.
In this week in BWR, I will discuss Tucker Carlson’s interview with President Putin. Why Carlson and why now? What was new, if anything, and what was said?
Takeaways:
GRIEVANCES: Putin aired a laundry list of grievances against the West - mostly the US - and presented his justification (false) for his war against Ukraine. These grievances ranged from Western reluctance to accept Russia into the “brotherhood of civilized nations” to allegations the CIA and the Deep State control the US.
MESSAGING: Putin is exploiting US domestic divisions over domestic problems and banking on a Trump presidential victory in 2024. The overall message was that Ukraine is an artificial state without history, and Russia has legitimate historical claims on vast territories of eastern Ukraine. The basis of these claims goes back to the 9th century. The message to Americans is that you have more important issues to address, like border and debt issues, instead of Ukraine. The message to Russians - there is popular support in the US for Russia.
NEGOTIATE: Putin, several times, stated he is ready for negotiations with the US over Ukraine and imprisoned Americans. Clearly, discounting any Ukrainian agency in negotiating the war.
The Carlson/Putin “interview” was very far from a Frost-Nixon interview, and it was a 2-hour bore with suspect translation. For the BWR Russian-speaking subscribers, follow this link to the undubbed version on Yandex, given that the Russian translator sweetened Putin’s tone for Carlson and the English-speaking audience. Nevertheless, the interview did have some value simply for the unmediated and unfiltered access to Putin’s voice. Since COVID and the subsequent second invasion of Ukraine, Putin – or Grandpa in the bunker, as described by Navalny – has isolated himself and only recently has come out of his man cave.
Despite numerous requests for interviews by Russian and foreign journalists, as confirmed by Putin’s Press Secretary Dimitri Peskov, Putin granted a rare interview to former FOX News talking head Tucker Carlson.
One may ask, why would Putin give a rare interview to an American, why now, and why Carlson? Putin sees the US as the key obstacle to winning the war in Ukraine, and the US is in the middle of presidential election campaigns. Carlson has often expressed admiration for Putin and has characterized Putin’s war on Ukraine as nothing more than a “border dispute.” Carlson has also advocated the US should abandon its support for Ukraine, a position often expressed by Carlson’s close ally, former President Trump. Carlson is also revered in the Russian Z-blogger world, a favorite of the Russian war hawks, and often cited on Kremlin-controlled news outlets.
In short, Carlson is a useful person for the Kremlin to disseminate the Russian war narrative in Russia and the US, as well as send a message to the American public and politicians. he is also considered a trusted advisor to Trump, someone who has long expressed admiration for Putin. In Russia, Carlson can be presented as evidence of growing popular support for Russia.
The Kremlin’s War Narrative
Ukrainian Sovereignty
A key component of the Kremlin’s justification for the war is historical claims on much of eastern Ukraine and the broader (false) claim that Ukraine is an artificial state. This position was articulated in the first 30 minutes of the interview when Putin responded to Carlson’s first question:
“You addressed the country on 22 Feb…the US, through NATO…may launch a surprise attack on Russia… tell us why you believe the US would attack Russia out of the blue?”
This resulted in a meandering 30-minute pseudo-history lecture on Russia, beginning with the Viking warrior Rurik’s invitation to rule Novgorod in 862. This was the stage setting for further justifications of Russian territorial claims in eastern Ukraine and the rejection of Ukrainian history.
Later in the interview, Putin reiterated previous claims that Ukraine is an “artificial state” created by Lenin and Stalin and suggested that Hungary also has claims to parts of modern-day Ukraine.
Message to Americans
Putin is well-versed in exploiting political divisions in the West, particularly during election cycles. In this spirit, Putin did not disappoint with his response to Tucker’s question,
“When was the last time you spoke to President Biden…this war could evolve into a much larger situation involving a nuclear launch…?
to which he claimed not to remember the last time they spoke and eventually meandered into questioning the US government’s priority of the Ukraine war over domestic issues.
“You have issues on the border, migration issues, issues with the national debt…You have nothing better to do, so you should fight in Ukraine? Wouldn’t it be better to negotiate with Russia?”
As I wrote in the 28 Jan BWR publication, Western politicians must articulate to their constituents a compelling reason for prioritizing Ukrainian aid over domestic needs. If not, the Kremlin will fill the void with a persuasive reason for abandoning Ukrainian support.
The CIA and Deep State
On two occasions during the interview, Putin claimed that proposals presented by the Kremlin to US presidents were rejected — not by the presidents themselves but by the CIA. The first such incident was Putin’s “offer” to Bill Clinton that Russia join NATO.
As per Putin, Clinton responded positively to the idea, but after months of discussions, Clinton’s team ultimately rejected it. The other cited incident was US support for Chechen separatists in the early ‘00s. When Putin confronted President Bush on this matter with evidence, Bush apologized and said he was “going to kick their [CIA] ass.” Ultimately, according to Putin, the CIA responded to FSB, stating,
“We have been working with the opposition in Russia and believe it is the right thing to do, and will continue doing it."
This led Carlson to ask:
“So, twice you’ve described US presidents making decisions and then being undercut by their agency heads. So, it sounds like you’re describing a system that’s not run by the people who are elected”
to which Putin responded,
“That’s right,”
Putin and Carlton and their supporters share feelings of mistrust of the CIA and suspicion that the “deep state” actually runs the US, so there were plenty of agreed pleasantries on this topic.
American Hostages in Russian Prisons
To Carlson’s credit, he raised the detention issue of Evan Gershkovich, a WSJ reporter arrested on espionage charges.
Carlson gently pressed Putin on the issue, highlighting Evan’s press credentials, to which Putin responded, “I don’t know who he was working for…he received confidential information, was caught red-handed, and this is an act of espionage”. No mention was made of the other American hostages — Marc Fogel, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva. Despite the charges against Putin, he stated he is ready to negotiate his release.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-ups:
Nothing to report.
Quick Bites
Chinese Banks Halt Settlements
Chouzhou Commercial Bank, a key Chinese bank has stopped all settlements with Russian clients.
According to Vedemosti, the bank is the main transaction channel for Russian importers after the invasion of Ukraine, reportedly notified clients last week that it was terminating relations with all Russian and Belarusian organizations.
Vol 2, No 08 - BWR 11.02.2024
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.
Thank you Adam for a helpful analysis of the interview. Considering both participants are not famous for their honest representation of the facts of the matters they are discussing, critical interpretation across languages is most appreciated.