Prigozhin is Dead - Martyr and Patriot of the Motherland?
What Happened? Why Now? What Happens to Wagner Group? How does it impact the War on Ukraine and Putin's Power?
Dear Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways”on the main topic followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” will be follow-ups from previous publications and emerging events.
In the previous issue, I discussed the weakening Russian Ruble (RUB) and rising inflation and its impact on the general population and business.
This issue will focus on the untimely, but ultimately expected death of Yevgeni Prigozhin.
My Takeaways:
PRICE OF BETRAYAL: Putin sent a message re-enforcing what should have already been clear to all – traitors will not be tolerated. Putin publicly described Prigozhin’s action as a stab in the back and a betrayal to Russia. Once designated as such, there is no return;
LOYALTY v COMPETENCE: Prigozhin spoke the truth about the incompetence and corruption of Shoigu and Gerasimov. But loyalty trumps competence in an authoritarian regime. How this will sit with the “Party of War,” which demands escalation and victory, remains to be seen;
MARTYR IN THE MAKING: Prigozhin – Patriot of the Motherland – is a martyr in the making among the nationalists, as they call for revenge for Prigozhin’s death. Onto whom the Kremlin spins the blame for Prigozhin’s death will determine whether this martyr status benefits Putin or not;
EROSION OF POWER: Putin’s power is based on instilling and projecting fear, and the Russian nationalists’ are becoming immune to it. Putin is playing a risky game of chicken between western fatigue with Ukraine and nationalists demand for victory.
What Happened? Why Now?
In a spectacular daytime plane crash this week, shortly after takeoff from a Moscow airport, Yevgeni Prigozhin, Dmitri Utkin and other Wagner lieutenants fell 9,000 meters to their death into a pile of fiery rubble in Tver Oblast/Region. Prigozhin’s private Embraer Legacy 600 jet was traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg when an explosion rang out, from either an onboard bomb or a surface-to-air missile (SAM). In any case, it is widely accepted the plane crash was deliberate and carried out with Putin’s approval. The Russian Ministry of Transport has opened an investigation into the cause of the crash –– frankly a formality.
(Source: Le Monde)
Prigozhin’s “March for Justice” revolt took place exactly two months ago from the date of his plane crash. Since then, Prigozhin and his commanders met with Putin in the Kremlin to discuss the reasons for the revolt, and he has been freely jetting around Russia, Belarus, and Africa. He attended the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg and was just this week in Africa reportedly meeting with African government officials.
(Source: Vedomosti)
Coincidentally, General Sergei Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since the June revolt, was officially dismissed from his air force post the same day Prigozhin and his lieutenants were killed in the crash. Surovikin had close ties to Prigozhin and had been revealed to be a Wagner Group member.
In the inaugural publication of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia (BWR)” dd 7 July, I wrote that Surovikin’s detention immediately after the revolt signaled the beginning of a purge of Wagner sympathizers in the armed forces. I also warned, given Progozhin’s nationalist following in and beyond the armed forces, that Putin ran the risk of turning Prigozhin into a nationalist martyr if he moved to punish him immediately.
The Wagner-affiliated Grey Zone Telegram channel published the following statement the day of the plane crash and the announcement of Prigozhin’s death:
“The head of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia.”
Other nationalist and Z-blogger channels were lit up with calls for revenge and pictures of ad-hoc memorials in Rostov-on-Don and St. Petersburg honoring Prigozhin and Utkin.
(Source: Telegram/Grey Zone)
Over the past two months, Wagner sympathizers and those questioning authority – General Ivan Popov is a case in point – have been identified, removed, or arrested. Not only in the armed forces, but also to some degree in the security services, as seen by the arrest of Igor Girkin (AKA Strelkov), the nationalist and former FSB colonel convicted by the Hague for the downing of Malaysian flight MH17, for calling for Putin’s removal. Girkin has a large following in the security services.
With dissenters identified and the purge in full force, Putin seemed comfortable enough to liquidate Prigozhin and his lieutenants in broad daylight, sending a clear message to everyone and the regular troops that disloyalty comes at the ultimate price. For the regular troops, Prigozhin’s liquidation implicitly represents justice delivered for the eleven regular service airmen killed by the Wagner Group during the “March of Justice”. The latter is particularly important for two reasons. First, no one has been held accountable for the death of those airmen. Second, Prigozhin, even in death, has a following among many regular troops because he called out Shigou and Gerasimov as “corrupt scum”.
Despite Prigozhin’s death and the arrests of sympathizers, Putin will continue to come under pressure from the nationalists to escalate the “special military operation” to a full-scale war and to remove Shigou and Gerasimov for their incompetence.
What Happens to the Wagner Group?
As discussed in the 15 July issue of BWR, Wagner Group is a subsidiary of Concord Management and Consulting, the holding company owned by Prigozhin. Wagner’s paramilitary services seamlessly complement the work of its sister media company, Internet Research Agency, which carries out information influence operations.
Concord generates billions of dollars in annual cash flows through financial interests in profitable domestic and foreign businesses. It also delivers plausible deniability to the Russian state as it carries out Russian foreign policy globally, e.g., in Niger, Mali, Venezuela, etc.
The process of breaking up Concord and de-mobilizing the mercenaries began two months ago. This process partly played a role in delaying Prigozhin’s fate, because it takes time to decide who will get which of those lucrative contracts and how are the Wagner mercenaries absorbed into the existing Russian war machine.
During these past two months, Wagner mercenaries have decamped from Rostov-on-Don to Belarus and Africa. Some have joined the regular Russian army, and others joined other PMCs under the umbrella of the Ministry of Defense, GRU, or FSB. For example, in early August two high-ranking Wagner commanders, Andrey Troshev and Vadim V. (known as “Sedoy” and “Khrustal” respectively), joined PMC Redut, an organization with allegiances to Shoigu and known to be funded by Oleg Deripaska and Gennady Timchenko. The funding mechanism comes in the form of supplemental salaries to soldier contracts provided by private Russian companies owned by Russian oligarchs.
Separately, in July, rumors were circulating that Concord’s Patriot Media Group would be acquired by National Media Group (NMG). NMG was founded by billionaire banker and close Putin ally Yuri Kovalchuk. Putin’s significant other, Alina Kabayeva, is the chair of NMG board of directors.
In the end, Concord and Wagner are in the process of dismantling and the contracts are being divided up among Putin loyalists.
How Does This Impact the War in Ukraine and Putin’s Power?
Prigozhin’s death and the dismantling of Wagner will have little impact, if any, on the war itself. Whatever positive benefit Bakhmut had on the regular army morale — Russia’s only battlefield success and one delivered by Wagner — has long ago faded. Wagner is being dismantled, it is no longer involved in Ukraine, and Wagner mercenaries are being absorbed into the regular army and other Russian PMCs.
In the short term, Putin has reasserted control over the elite, but his power continues to erode. His power is based the fear he instills in, and projects upon, the elite. The elite means the technocrats that run the day-to-day business of the country, the generals that technically run the war, and more importantly the growing vocal Party of War and “Turbo Patriots” - a term I’ve seen used in some think tank publications - who are drunk with patriotism (not Putinism) and demanding the escalation of the war and victory.
The Turbo Patriots are nationalists within the armed forces and intelligence services. These are the people with guns, beginning to question Putin’s power, judgement, and increasingly resistant to Putin’s intimidation. This is a dangerous trend for Putin because they also represent his core base of support.
Their resistance to fear is evidenced by calls on nationalist Telegram channels to avenge Prigozhin’s death, unprecedented direct calls for Putin’s removal, and the large number of Prigozhin sympathizers removed from the armed services. This infectious patriotic attitude, lacking Putinism, is gaining traction within the security services and armed forces. Will this trend reach a tipping point to seriously threaten Putin’s power? Putin is playing a risky game of chicken between western fatigue with Ukraine and nationalists demand for victory – which will come first remains to be seen. The Ukrainian counter offensive is a driving variable in this calculus.
Couple this infectious patriotism with martyrdom – Prigozhin, Patriot of the Motherland – and Putin will be facing a serious threat to his power. How “Prigozhin - Patriot of the Motherland” works for Putin will depend on how well the Kremlin spins Prigozhin’s death. Who will be blamed: Ukraine, Shoigu, Gerasimov, or FSB? Several scapegoat options available to frame.
Another key feature of Putin’s power is conflict resolution between the elites. In the Prigozhin/ Shoigu/Gerasimov case, the conflict was left to fester for three months, ultimately leading to the “March for Justice” and Prigozhin’s death. This has left many of the elite wondering if Putin is no longer able to govern.
A perfect storm of events is brewing - a failing war led by incompetent generals, nationalists demanding victory, a wartime economy on borrowed time, and declining standard of living - which Putin needs to manage as they grow quickly.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-Ups:
The RUB appears to have stabilized and inflation is temporarily under control.
Quick Bites:
Ukrainian Counter Offensive
The Ukrainian counter offensive has been making steady incremental progress, as per the Institute for the Study of War. Progress has been hampered by slow delivery of materiel from western countries, which allowed Russian troops to entrench themselves into a 1,500KM three-tier defensive line made up of dragon’s teeth, mines, and manned trenches. This defensive line is known as the Surovikin line, named after the recently purged Russian general who had the foresight to build the defensive line. While the Russians are now on the defensive and entrenched, they are also thinly manned. A Ukrainian break anywhere along the active front could result in a collapse of the defensive line.
Vol 1, No 8 - BWR 25.08.2023
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