One Night in Riyadh & Ukrainian Peace
THE TRUSTED HOST | REALPOLITIK
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“Barbershop Whispers….Russia (BWR)” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by a discussion on the main topic. The last two BWR sections are “Follow-ups” on previous publications and “Quick Bites” on emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I discussed the Putin-Trump bromance, peace negotiations, and who is expected at the negotiating table.
In this week’s BWR, I discuss peace negotiations in realpolitik and the venue choice: Saudi Arabia instead of a traditional European city. Also, a young Russian dealmaker emerges from the shadows.
Takeaways
TRUSTED HOST—The venue choice of Saudi Arabia over Europe was a message to the EU, you are not a decisionmaker in the Ukrainian peace negotiations.
BUSINESS—Putin is trying to appeal to Trump’s business interests by promoting investment opportunities for American companies in Russia. Western companies are unlikely to rush back to Russia after writing off approximately $300B due to abrupt exits from the country over the past three years.
One Night in Riyadh & Ukrainian Peace
THE TRUSTED HOST | REALPOLITIK
Background
Putin’s war on Ukraine extends beyond Ukraine and began long before the "little green men” took Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. In Putin’s view, it is a conflict against the collective West and the culmination of decades of Russian grievances toward the West.
A the UN General Assembly Russian President Boris Yeltsin spoke at the UN General Assembly (Time Stamp 06:31) and stated
“The economic and foreign policy interests of Russia lie in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States […] ties with them are closer than the traditional relations of good neighbors. It is a tremendous blood relationship.”
The Kremlin’s official “near abroad” foreign policy from the 1990s and early 2000s can be directly traced to Yeltsin’s speech at the UN. Over the past two decades, the former Soviet states have gradually gained more independence from Moscow and continue to strengthen their ties with China, Türkiye, and the US. This is evidenced by some taking steps to join Western economic and military alliances—the EU economic zone and NATO.
Ukraine has been at the center of this shift toward Western alliances, and it was a driving factor in Putin’s 2014 “little green men” invasion of Crimea and the subsequent second invasion in February 2022. NATO expansion is often cited as a key factor influencing the Kremlin’s perception of Western aggression.
For those interested in delving into this specific topic, this fascinating 1994 discussion between Henry Kissinger and US Ambassador Jack Matlock about NATO expansion is insightful.
The Trusted Host
Once elected, US President Donald Trump said he would end Putin’s war in 24 hours. While he did not succeed, the US has launched official discussions with Russia about the Ukrainian war and improved relations with Russia for the first time in three years. Prior to the official discussions, there have been informal back-channel communications, and public signals have been taking place since October 2024.
The Saudi capital, Riyadh, was chosen as the venue for the first meeting between the US and Russian negotiating teams for several reasons. It sends a message of irrelevance to Europe—the table is set for strong decision-makers, and they are not among them. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has strong relations with both the US and Russia. The Saudis are grateful to Trump for securing the Abraham Accords during his first term as president. Although the Biden Administration has distanced itself from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) because of the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump’s son-in-law engaged with MBS and received funding from the Saudis for his private equity fund. Additionally, the Saudis are also key investors in partnerships with the Russia Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which is Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. It’s also important to note that the meeting is hosted and attended by the three largest crude oil producers in the world.
The members of the negotiating teams are significant. The Russian team included Foreign Policy Advisor Yuri Ushakov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and RDIF CEO Kirill Dmitriev. Dmitriev's participation is particularly important because of his links to the US and his role as chief of the RDIF. He is a Ukrainian-born Russian who earned degrees from Stanford and Harvard and worked for Delta Capital, a US government-funded investment platform in Russia. He now runs Russia’s multi-billion dollar sovereign wealth fund and has good relations with the Saudis.
During a press interview in Riyadh, Dmitriev said American businesses lost more than $300B from the withdrawal from the Russian market. He further stated:
"Accordingly, finding joint economic ways and positive solutions to issues is extremely important mainly for the United States and for many other countries that are beginning to realize that the Russian market is extremely attractive and needs to be present on it,"
Dmitriev noted the importance of economic cooperation and said he would be responsible for the economic aspect of the discussion.
His participation aimed to represent Russian economic interests in fostering improved relations with the US. Putin also chose him to serve as a modern and fresh face of Russia for the American negotiating team, which included US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.
Realpolitik
Trump and Putin have a similar worldview. Those in positions of power, whether economic or political, should leverage it to improve their global standing. This idea underpins “Make America Great" and influences the current peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.
At Trump and Putin's direction, the US and Russian teams are working to build trust before engaging in substantive discussions about peace in Ukraine. To some extent, a notable level of trust has already been established through the unconventional exchange of prisoners—Marc Fogel and Alexander Vinnik—in which there was no dramatic tarmac transfer. Instead, Fogel was released to Witkoff during his visit to Moscow, and the following day, Vinnik was delivered to Moscow on a US government plane. All these actions are outside of the traditional protocol.
The most significant action Trump has taken to bring Putin to the negotiating table is establishing direct communication with the Kremlin, bypassing the EU and Ukraine. In Putin’s view, this reaffirms his status as an equal to a U.S. president, which is the recognition Putin has sought since he became president in 2000.
It also reinforces Putin’s false narrative that the Ukrainian war is a proxy conflict with the West. Other efforts from Trump have included advocating for Russia’s readmission into the G7, dismissing Ukrainian NATO membership, and insisting on Ukrainian presidential elections—all before negotiations even began. The most important chip, sanctions, remains on the negotiating table.
It remains to be seen what Trump, and the negotiating team, expect in return for all the unearned gifts Trump has given to Putin. It is also unclear whether Putin sincerely wants peace or not.
Additional Reading(s)
Bromancing to Peace (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 17 Feb 2025)
What’s in it for Me? (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 8 Dec 2024)
Russia’s sovereign wealth chief named special envoy after key role in Riyadh talks (Alarabiya News, 23 Feb 2025)
Putin´s Man from Stanford (iStories, 18 Feb 2025)
Negotiating with Russia is Fraught with Peril (The Cipher Brief, 22 February 2025)
Trump and Putin seek economic reset but businesses may not rush back to Russia (Atlantic Council, 20 February 2025)
Dmitriev pointed to the loss of $300 billion by US businesses after leaving the Russian market (Izvestia, 17 February 2025)
Follow-ups & Quick Bites
Follow-ups
No follow ups this week.
Quick Bites
Zelensky Offers to Resign in Exchange for NATO Membership
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was ready to quit as Ukraine's president if it meant Kyiv would be admitted to the NATO military alliance.
He spoke as Russia's TASS news agency reported that U.S. and Russian diplomats would meet in the next week, a follow-up to Riyadh talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Zelensky has been calling for Ukraine to be given NATO membership as part of any deal to end the war, but the Washington-led alliance has been reluctant to make a pledge.
"If there is peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, I am ready. ... I can exchange it for NATO,"
Zelensky told a Kyiv press conference, adding he would depart "immediately" if necessary.
Additional Reading(s)
Zelensky Says He’s Ready to Step Down for Peace or NATO Membership for Ukraine (Kyiv Post, 23 February 2025)
Vol 3, No 08 - BWR 23.02.2025
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Interesting read thank you.