Negotiations with Iran: How to Weave a Carpet
MT799 Authenticated | Independent Contributors Column
Dear Subscribers,
Welcome to MT799 Authenticated, Barbershop Whispers….Russia's (BWR) independent contributors column is published on Wednesdays from time to time.
The views of MT799 contributors are their views and not necessarily the opinions of BWR or e8Q Technologies LLC.
Publisher’s Note:
As the US and Iran barely adhere to a fragile ceasefire, I asked Dr. Kenneth Dekleva, a renowned practicing psychiatrist with decades of foreign service experience profiling leaders for the US government, to share his thoughts on Iran’s negotiating strategy.
Dr. Dekleva is a frequent contributor to MT799. Two of his most recent MT799 Authenticated pieces are Walk in the Woods: US-Iran Peace and Trump - Maduro Caribbean Face Off.
About the Author:
Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist with the U.S. Dept. of State from 2002-2016 and is currently a Professor of Psychiatry, UT Southwestern Medical Center, CEO of Blackwood Advisory Solutions LLC, a Salzburg Global Fellow at the Salzburg Global Seminar, and a Senior Fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. He is the author of several novels, including The Russian Diplomat’s Wife, The Negotiator’s Cross, and an upcoming international crime thriller, The Expediter.
The views expressed are entirely his own and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, the U.S. Dept. of State, or UT Southwestern Medical Center.
Negotiations with Iran: How to Weave a Carpet
Following the recent American bombing of Iran, Iran’s closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and the pending, tenuous cease-fire, all eyes have turned to the now-failed negotiations – mediated by Pakistan – between America and Iran. Negotiations between hated enemies are very difficult. The late Uri Lubrani, Israel’s last Ambassador to Iran in 1978 (also known as Israel’s ‘Mr. Iran’), always warned Westerners (as well as his Israeli colleagues) about the perils of negotiating with the Iranians, whom he respected for their negotiating prowess, calling their manipulation of negotiations,
“a masterpiece of hoodwinking the world…They have 3,000 years of culture; they’re patient – a nation of carpet-weavers, and of chess players.”
So Lubrani’s wisdom is worth noting as the United States envisions a possible return to diplomatic negotiations with Iran in today’s 21st-century version of ‘The Great Game.’
Iran has so far revealed itself to be a formidable yet confusing negotiating partner, in which traditional Western metrics of ‘Getting to Yes’ do not seem to apply. It must be understood as a rational actor. In the Pakistan negotiations, it’s been unclear who has the real authority to negotiate on behalf of Iran, who is included in high-level decision-making, and how much such processes have slowed due to the war. The Iranians have thus brilliantly used ambiguity and opacity as negotiating strategies.
The American negotiators are attempting to negotiate with an entity that is a combination of a nation-state (Iran), a civilization (Persia), and a sanctioned terrorist group (IRGC). Going further, the Iranians have offered little clue, and even more deception and ambiguity, as to who is running their country. A dead or severely injured Ayatollah Mojtaba Khameini? President Pezeshkian? Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf? The IRGC (but which leader inside this grouping – it remains ambiguous)? This opacity vis-à-vis their American counterparts has served Iran exquisitely well during the negotiations. Oddly, though, in its more recent diplomatic engagements with Pakistan, Russia, and Oman, as a way to leverage and play a weak hand well and to slow down any diplomatic engagement with America (unless on its own terms), Iran has relied upon traditional diplomacy – with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi – in highly visible meetings with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif and Army Chief of Staff Munir, Russia’s President Putin, and Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq.
Iran has also proven adept at using social media from multiple sources, including the Foreign Minister Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and the IRGC, to stake out confusing, ambiguous, and multidimensional negotiating positions, which has caused confusion for the United States. This is in addition to Iran’s ongoing asymmetric warfare, closure of the Straits of Hormuz, disinformation, propaganda, diplomatic efforts, and social media memes (using LEGOs to embarrass President Trump!). One could safely say that the Iranians are ‘A+ students’ who have mastered President Trump’s style and his The Art of the Deal.
Negotiations with terror groups such as the IRGC, which have committed acts of violence and terror over decades, often involve third-party emissaries (since governments cannot be seen as the main negotiating partner) and high-level government intermediaries in ‘track 3’ diplomacy. In the past, examples have included former German intelligence officer Dr. Gerhard Conrad’s negotiations with Hamas and Hezbollah; Swiss-American attorney Daniel Levin’s work in the Middle East with The Liechtenstein Foundation for State Governance; and Swiss diplomat Pascal Holiger’s negotiations for the release of victims of Boko Haram in Nigeria. The role of empathy, culture, trust, language, and nuance remains critical in such delicate endeavors.
While Pakistan’s role as a mediator and facilitator in the Iran negotiations has been seen as successful, both domestically and in enhancing its global diplomatic profile, labeling it as such has entailed some suspension of critical judgment. Pakistan’s role is hardly neutral and serves its own national interests, not necessarily those of Iran or the United States (let alone Israel, with whom it has no diplomatic relations). Pakistan’s complex role is colored by its ongoing conflict with Afghanistan, its strategic closeness to China (in my opinion, the real‘winner’ of the Iran-US conflict), and its ever-standing dangerous conflict with India.
Negotiations with Iran can be expected to take longer, and time is Iran’s best weapon, as it can inflict more economic and political pain on the West, especially America, as the November 2026 midterm elections approach. During its devastating war with Iraq in the 1980s – with over 1 million Iranian casualties – Iran endured 8 years before the late Ayatollah Khomeini made a peace deal, “drinking from the poisoned chalice.” It’s worth recalling that after the 1979 seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran, thousands of Iranian women patiently sifted – for years! – through shredded American classified documents to reconstruct a picture of America’s intelligence activities in Iran just before the fall of the Shah. Observers should note that today’s battered Iran remains patient and resolved. But a critical question now concerns President Trump and what actions – diplomatic or military – he might take next.
The Iran conflict has, de facto, rewritten risk management and due diligence processes for global investors and corporations, given the higher-order effects of drone attacks, supply chain disruptions, and other economic shocks (such as the UAE’s departure from OPEC) on the world. Nassim Taleb’s heretofore singular model of ‘black swans’ as isolated, defining ‘shock’ events may no longer hold sway, as today’s global disruptions have shown that – as venture capitalist Hamlet Yousef said in a 2024 podcast (with me) – “They’re flocking and flying all over the place.” And Iran knows this well. Black swans are now equally part of its evolving asymmetric warfare playbook.
Pour the tea, please.
Additional Reading(s)
Walk in the Woods: US - Iran Peace (Barbershop Whispers…MT799 Authenticated, Kenneth B. Dekleva, 02 Jul 2025)
Iran: Another Russian Ally on the Cusp of Regime Change (Barbershop Whispers…MT799 Authenticated, Hamlet Yousef, 22 Jun 2026)
The Kremlin’s Alliances are Changing: Fallen and Teetering Dominoes (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 11 Jan 2026)
COLD WAR 2.0: The Mindset of Autocrats (Iron Gate Capital Advisors, 16 Aug 2024)
Vol 4, No 22 - BWR (MT799) 05.05.2026
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.
Thank you for sharing Adam! Amazing piece, Dr Dekleva! I was waiting - and pleased to see you mentioning China as the real winner here. My question is, to what extent has China guided Iran and the Pakistan talks? And has that somewhat emasculated the American position at the Pakistani table? Thank you