2024 in Review — Good Riddance!!
FIVE MAJOR RUSSIA EVENTS 2024 | ELECTION, SYRIA, AND NAVALNY
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“Barbershop Whispers….Russia (BWR)” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by a discussion on the main topic. The last two BWR sections are “Follow-ups” on previous publications and “Quick Bites” on emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I took a break from Russia and shared four book recommendations with our BWR subscribers — Shoe Shiners and Barbers alike.
In this week’s BWR, I summarize 2024’s five most important events in Russia, starting from number five and ending with arguably the most consequential event. Suffice it to say 2024 was not a good year for Russia or the West.
Summary
All of Russia’s major 2024 events are driven by Putin’s war on Ukraine in some way. Apart from Putin’s war, the common threads in these events are Russia’s limited resources, government corruption, and Putin’s obsession with control.
For example, the resource demands of the war in Ukraine resulted in fewer resources to keep Assad in power. Putin invested heavily in Assad, and the loss of Syria has exposed the Kremlin’s limitations to protect its allies in their time of need. This will have real consequences on the Kremlin’s ability to project power.
The presidential election was no surprise. It marks 25 years of Putin's rule, and for this reason alone, it is a major event. The replacement of Defense Minister Shoigu with economist Andrei Belousov was notable because it was an attempt to address corruption in the Defense Ministry during wartime.
The trading of Western hostages for Russian criminals may have been a precursor to informal ceasefire negotiations. More importantly for Putin, the trade demonstrated his commitment to his most powerful support base, the Russian intelligence services. Even if they did fail him with bad intel on Ukraine, resulting in a three-year (so far) war, he will always support them.
By far, Alexei Navalny’s murder is the most consequential event of 2024, and arguably since Putin took power in 2000. This is consequential because he was the only opposition leader who successfully challenged Putin and continued to do so until his death. Navalny was charismatic and innovative, a stark contrast to the Soviet-era septuagenarians in the Kremlin. Navalny was a true Russian patriot and a leader, and he will be missed.
2024 in Review — Good Riddance!!
FIVE MAJOR RUSSIA EVENTS 2024 | ELECTION, SYRIA, AND NAVALNY
No. 5 — Russia’s Presidential “Election”
In May 2024, Putin won the presidential “election.” The election was, in reality, a plebiscite, with 87.3% approval and 77.4% voter turnout. Elections in Russia are nothing more than a box-ticking exercise to confirm autocratic rule.
The most important government change after Putin’s “re-election” was the replacement of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who held that position since 2012. Shoigu was replaced by economist and Putin loyalist Andrei Belousov. The change reflects the strains of Putin’s war on the Defense Ministry, the federal budget, and the economy. Since Belousov’s appointment, several Defense Ministry officials have been arrested on corruption charges.
While corruption is an unofficial accepted source of income for ministry bureaucrats, it became unabated and over-the-top in the Defense Ministry, and at a time when financial resources are dwindling.
Belousov was brought in to regulate resources and address corruption, but not eliminate it.
Shoigu replaced the powerful Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council and Patrushev was given a Presidential Aide position responsible for shipbuilding. But rest assured, Patrushev still has Putin’s ear, and that is more valuable than a government title.
TAKEAWAY—Russian presidential elections are an exercise in “marking the box.” Putin’s war and the Western sanctions are forcing resource constraints.
Additional Reading(s)
Russia’s Presidential “Election” (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 24 Mar 2024)
Kremlin Elite Power Shifts (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 26 May 2024)
“Russia’s Military Shaken as Top Level Purge Unfolds”, (Center for European Policy Analysis, Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan
All the Autocrat’s Men: The Court Politics of Putin’s Inner Circle (Atlantic Council, Mikhail Zygar)
No. 4 — Crocus Center Terror Attack
The Crocus City Center terrorist attack in Krasngorsk, a suburb of Moscow, in March 2024 was the second deadliest in Russian history. Within 13 minutes, twelve terrorists killed 145 innocent civilians and injured 551. With AK-47s, the terrorists killed concertgoers and then set the building on fire, causing the roof to collapse and killing more people.
The terrorist act took place despite several warnings from the US to the Kremlin that a terrorist threat was imminent. This warning was not only ignored but publicly mocked.
Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility for the attack; the same terrorist group that was responsible for the suicide bombing in the Abby Gate Afghanistan incident that claimed 13 American soldiers and 170 Afghan civilians.
In the aftermath of the Crocus Center attack, the Kremlin further tightened regulations on migrant labor, resulting in a significant decline in Central Asian migrant workers. Central Asian countries began warning their citizens against traveling to Russia due to concerns about racial discrimination following the attack, which was allegedly carried out by 12 Tajiks detained by the Federal Russian Security Services (FSB). Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin stated:
"…an ill-conceived information campaign creating a negative perception of citizens of Tajikistan and Tajiks"
The Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reported that its citizens, mostly young men, were refusing to enter Russia.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became increasingly dependent on cheap Central Asian labor. In 2021, Central Asian migrant laborers represented 2.7M of the labor force, an essential resource for the Russian economy amid ongoing labor shortages.
The labor shortages have been building for two decades due to Russia’s deteriorating demographics —- aging population and low birth rate — and have only been exacerbated by Putin’s war, which saw more than 1M skilled workers emigrate, some 500K young men mobilized, and to date 760K Russian war casualties. As a result, factories compete for skilled labor, driving up wages and fueling inflation.
TAKEAWAY—Russian security services are preoccupied with Putin’s war and have taken their eye off the Islamic terrorist threats, even when they are provided warnings.
Additional Reading(s)
The Tajikistani Connection (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 12 May 2024)
Moscow Terror Attack Spotlights Russia-Tajikistan Ties (Carnegie Politika, 23 Mar 2024)
US Warning to Russia Named Crocus Center (Radio Free Europe, 3 April 2024)
No. 3 — Hostages for Criminals
In August 2024, Putin and the West agreed to trade 24 prisoners. Putin had been collecting foreign prisoners, based on false criminal charges, like casino chips, for some years to exchange them for convicted Russian criminals in Western jails.
The US, Germany, Norway, Slovenia, and Poland released nine Russian criminals, including the infamous Vadim Krasikov, an FSB assassin who murdered Georgian-Chechen dissident Zelimkhan “Tornike” Khangoshvili in Berlin’s Tiergarten Park in broad daylight. In exchange, the West received fifteen prisoners, which included political prisoners. Among the civilians were American journalists Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva. The political prisoners included Vladimir Kaza-Murza, Oleg Orlov, and Ilya Yashin. Orlov, co-chairman of the recently banned Nobel Peace Prize-winning human rights center Memorial, was convicted of repeatedly discrediting the Russian military. The 71-year-old human rights activist wrote an article.
“Russia is slipping back into totalitarianism, but this time the fascist kind. The bloody war that Putin's regime has unleashed in Ukraine is not only the mass murder of people and the annihilation of infrastructure, economy, and cultural sites. Not only the destruction of the foundations of international law, it is also a severe blow to the future of Russia."
Alexei Navalny was supposed to be part of this prisoner exchange but instead was murdered in the notorious IK-3 Prison—AKA “Arctic Wolf” prison camp— in February 2024. His death complicated and delayed the prisoner swap for six months, until August 2024.
Was the prisoner swap a precursor to ceasefire negotiations? Maybe. However, the overarching interest for Putin was the release of imprisoned intelligence agents, demonstrating his commitment to his most valuable support base in Russia, the intelligence and security services.
TAKEAWAY—Putin’s hold on power is strong but, at the same time, fragile. He needed to keep the intelligence and security services satisfied, and the hostage exchange demonstrated his commitment.
Additional Reading(s)
Trading Hostages for Criminals – Why Now? (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 4 August 2024)
Who is Vadim Krasikov, a Russian Hitman Freed from German Jail in a Prisoner Swap? (Reuters, 1 Aug 2024)
Who’s Who in Russia’s Prisoner Exchange with the West, (Wall Street Journal, 1 Aug 2024)
No. 2 — Putin Can’t Afford to Keep or Lose Syria — He Lost
Syria is the poster child of Russia’s struggle and strain on resources to secure a sustainable global presence beyond its “Near Abroad,” a region where it is also struggling.
Putin placed his all-in bet on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2015, as the Syrian dictator was struggling to remain in power as Western-backed opposition forces, as well as Islamic extremists, threatened to topple the Assad regime. The investment in Russia’s only Middle East client state was intended to send a message to Kremlin allies, in fear of Western powers “instigating color revolutions,” that Putin has their back. It was also intended to re-establish a military outpost on the Mediterranean Sea from which Russia could project power onto Europe and support military adventures in Africa.
Well, everything came crashing down in December 2024 when opposition factions took Aleppo and then the Syrian capital, Damascus, in a surprise military offensive, forcing Assad to seek refuge in Moscow. The new Syrian leadership now consists of Turkish-backed opposition groups, which Russia has carpet-bombed intermittently since 2015.
The Kremlin is now negotiating the status of the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase with the new de facto government. Without these bases, the Kremlin will struggle to support its Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, operations in Africa.
The Kremlin has requested the help of Turkish President Erdoğan to retain control over the bases, given Erdoğan’s relationship with the new Syrian leaders. Erdoğan Pasha is in no hurry to help, and the Kremlin has begun to pack and remove equipment from the bases.
The losers of Assad’s downfall are Russia and Iran. The winners are Türkiye, Israel, and the U.S. Türkiye and the U.S. continue to fill the power vacuum left by Russia in the Levant and South Caucasus. Russia’s despotic allies around the world have good reason to doubt Russia’s willingness and ability to provide them with financial and military support when they need it most.
TAKEAWAY—Putin simply could not provide Assad with the resources to stay in power. All resources go to Putin’s war on Ukraine. There is also an element of intelligence failure—Russian intel should have known this was going to happen.
Additional Reading(s)
Assad Asks for Troops, Putin Sends a Plane (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 15 Dec 2024)
Russia’s North Caucasus (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 19 Nov 2024)
Russia’s Near Abroad is in Play – Influence Competition (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 23 Sep 2023)
How Assad's Fall Threatens Russia's Military Influence in Syria -- And Across The Region (Radio Free Europe, 9 Dec 2024)
What Does Regime Change in Syria Mean for Russian-Turkish Relations? (Carnegie Politika, 13 Dec 2024)
How the Kremlin Squandered Syria? (The Bell, 11 Dec 2024)
No. 1 — The Murder of Another Russian Patriot – Alexei Navalny
“Truth – Alexei Navalny was murdered by President Vladimir Putin on 16 February 2024.”
This was my opening sentence of BWR’s 18 Feb 2024 publication, “Alexei Navalny – The Suspicious Death of Another Russian Patriot.” Whether Navalny died from an act of poison directly or indirectly ordered by Putin or from the abysmal prison conditions, Putin is responsible for his death. Putin need not explicitly direct the order to kill; he simply creates an environment that conveys the message to which eager minions deliver to please him. This is likely what happened to opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, killed near the Kremlin walls in 2015, and investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya, killed in the stairwell of her apartment complex in 2006.
In 2016, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov posted a video on his Telegram channel of former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and Vladimir Kaza-Murza in the cross-hairs of a sniper scope. In short, tacit approval to assassinate Kasyanov and Kaza-Murza and creating the environment for it to happen.
Alexei Navalny’s murder in the “Arctic Wolf” prison is arguably the most significant event of 2024 and perhaps the most consequential since Putin came to power in 2000. His death was consequential because it represented the elimination of the only credible grassroots challenge to Putin’s authority. Navalny was not a product of the Soviet era, and this appealed to the younger generations. He campaigned against the Putin regime alongside his family. In contrast to Putin, who still makes little, if any, mention of his family.
His charisma and innovation motivated people to participate and establish a nationwide network of political offices that were eventually banned by the Kremlin. The Bolotnaya Square protests brought together 60,000 ordinary citizens protesting the rigged parliamentary and presidential elections, exemplifying his unique influence on the younger generations.
Navalny is one of several promising Russian patriots killed by the Kremlin since Putin took power in 2000.
In the end, Navalany, a true Russian patriot, paid with his life for the people’s fight against Putin. He was a leader and a true Russian patriot, and he will be missed.
TAKEAWAY—Paranoia runs deep in Putin and the Kremlin elite. Exiling Navalny was not enough; he represented an existential threat to Putin’s power, and for that, Navalny paid with his life. Who will fill Navalny’s shoes? He will be missed.
Additional Reading(s)
Alexei Navalny – The Suspicious Death of Another Russian Patriot (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 18 Feb 2024)
Navalny May Haven Been Killed by Poisoning: Documents Suggest (Politico, 23 Sep 2024)
The Death of Alexei Navalny (Brookings Institution, 16 Feb 2024)
Russian Journalist Anna Politkovskaya Was Killed 15 Years Ago (The Nation, 6 October 2024)
Boris Nemtsov, Russian Opposition Leader, Murdered (Brookings, 17 February 2024)
Follow-ups & Quick Bites
Follow-ups
No follow-ups this week.
Quick Bites
Russian Pipeline Transit Gas via Ukraine Ends
Ukraine on Wednesday halted Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe through its network after a prewar transit deal expired at midnight on 31 December 2024, almost three years into Putin’s war on Ukraine.
Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, posted on his Telegram channel,
“This is a historic event. Russia is losing markets and will incur financial losses […] Europe has already decided to phase out Russian gas, and (this) aligns with what Ukraine has done today.”
Before the war, Russia supplied nearly 40% of the European Union’s pipeline gas. However, according to data from the EU Commission, Russia’s share of the EU pipeline gas market dropped sharply to about 8% in 2023. The Ukrainian transit route served Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, which are now scrambling to diversify supply sources.
Moscow can still send gas to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.
The biggest loser in this gas game is Russian-backed Transnistria, the Moldovan breakaway territory. Transnistria is solely dependent on Russian pipeline gas and has maybe two months of gas reserves. Moldova proper, on the other hand, has diversified its energy sources to the EU.
Watch this space. Moldova has long been a target of Russian interference, and Russia will likely aggravate the energy crisis in the region. Russia maintains a military base in the breakaway territory under the auspices of the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), a peacekeeping force.
Additional Reading(s)
Russian Gas Supply to Europe via Ukraine Halted After Transit Deal Expires (Al Jazeera, 1 Jan 2025)
What is the Russian army doing in Transnistria? (TRTWorld, Feb 2022)
Vol 3, No 01 - BWR 05.01.2025
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