Drone Strikes in Russia and the Ukraine Counter-Offensive
Swarm of Drones Knocking on Putin’s Door. Where is the Counter Offensive? What is the impact on Putin’s Power?
Dear Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways”on the main topic followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” will be follow-ups from previous publications and emerging events.
In the previous issue, I discussed the untimely, but ultimately expected, death of Wagner leader Yevgeni Prigozhin and the impact this will have on the war in Ukraine and Putin’s power.
This issue will focus on the two massive Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, regional cities, and the state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. What happened and how will this impact Putin’s power?
My Takeaways:
RUSSIAN PARTISAN SUPPORT: Twenty-one plus drone launches from deep within Russian territory indicates Russian partisan collaboration. Are there anti-war/Putin partisan cells in Russia, and if yes, how many and how are they organized?
DRONES & COUNTEROFFENSIVE:
Drones - Attacks on Russia will become routine and will escalate in strength and number. They will be a constant reminder to the public, siloviki, and elite that the war is also in Russia and there is now nowhere to hide;
Counteroffensive - Utilizing the limited resources available, Ukraine is making remarkable progress. This is a function of passion—hearts and minds—fighting for family and country;
SECURITY FAILURE: There have been serious military and intelligence failures in preventing, and stopping, the in-country drone launches and attacks. How, where, and who launched these drones? Internal conflict within the security services is on the rise;
PUBLIC SUPPORT: While Russian citizens are not experiencing the terror the Kremlin is inflicting on Ukrainians, the war is becoming a reality, and constant drone strikes and soldiers in body bags are now in plain sight. Whether this will be enough to wake an apathetic Russian public remains to be seen;
EROSION OF POWER: Putin’s power structure is fragile and unstable. Pressure from “turbo patriots” for Putin to deliver security and victory is growing, western support for Ukraine remains strong and resilient, and there seems no end in sight to the war. This does not bode well for the Kremlin generally and Putin specifically.
Swarm of Drones Knocking on Putin’s Door
A quote attributed to Trotsky is now becoming a reality for the Russian population, thanks to President Putin’s war on Ukraine.
“You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you” – Leon Trotsky
This week the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) launched two of the the biggest drone attacks on military targets in Russia since the second invasion began in February 2022. Several Russian regions—Kursk, Pskov, Oryol, Bryansk, Ryazan, Voronezh, and Moscow, plus the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol—were attacked by swarms of Ukrainian drones.
(Source: Russian Ministry of Defense)
According to Russian milbloggers, the Pskov airport—located 700km from the Ukrainian border—was attacked by more than 21 drones. According to TASS, up to four Il-76 transport planes were taken out of commission; other sources claim six. According to NATO, the Russian Air Force has approximately 100 Il-76 in inventory, of which maybe 60% are airworthy at any one time. The Il-76 is a backbone military cargo transport, and the loss of 7-10% of your transport equipment will impact the efficiency of military logistics and supply chain operations.
(Source: Grey Zone Telegram channel)
Ukraine is increasingly striking deep behind the front lines, as demonstrated by the Pskov airfield and Moscow drone attacks. Ukraine’s ability to carry out—and the Russian military’s inability to stop—these attacks has not been lost on the general public, nationalist military bloggers, and Putin’s chief propagandist. As these attacks become more frequent, the general population experiences airport shutdowns, air raid sirens, and falling debris from the sky.
Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov expressed his outrage in a 12-minute inflammatory rant suggesting the Pskov airfield attack did not originate in Ukraine and questioning the Kremlin’s response to these attacks:
“If it was launched from a NATO country, it is a declaration of war against Russia, we must respond immediately with nuclear weapons….”
“We should declare all-out war….level Kyiv….symbols of Ukraine…and NATO”
“What will we do when they (Ukrainians) have F-16s?”
Solovyov was not wrong in questioning the origin of the Pskov airbase attack, as confirmed by the Chief of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, on Twitter:
"The drones used to attack the Kresty air base in Pskov were launched from Russia,"
The fact that attacks are being launched from within Russia to attack Russian targets raises serious domestic security questions. Launching 21+ drones from within Russian territory does not happen without anti-Putin/war partisan support.
This news will further inflame the turbo patriots’ call for a declaration of all-out war and a third mobilization.
Where is the Counteroffensive?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in early summer has had incremental success, despite long delays by western countries in delivering promised long-range field equipment. During this time, the Russian army dug into a formidable 1,500km three-tier defensive line comprised of dragons’ teeth (solid concrete triangles designed to stop tanks), kilometers of land mines, and then manned trenches. This defensive line, known as the Surovikin Line and named after the detained aerospace general who built it, is formidable, but thinly manned by poorly trained Russian soldiers.
Over the summer, the Ukrainian army has engaged in probing and shaping operations, a process by which weak points in the frontline are identified and military strikes are carried out on the supporting supply chain and logistics hubs/nodes. This strategy, also known as deep battle, has delivered success as evidenced by the attack on the Soltsy-2 airbase outside of St. Petersburg (where a Tupolev Tu-22M bomber was destroyed) and more recently the drone attack on Pskov where six Il-76 cargo planes were taken out of commission by Ukrainian drones. Another example of successful deep battle execution is the attacks on the Kerch bridge, connecting mainland Russia with Crimea. The bridge was attacked twice by Ukrainian unmanned water vehicles (UWV). The bridge represents a major supply corridor for Russian forces.
In the absence of needed long-distance artillery, the Ukrainians have been very creative in converting obsolete Soviet era S-200 surface-to-air missile systems into surface-to-surface systems. These systems are known as “Defender of the Soviet Motherland” and went into service in 1967.
These converted S-200s have been used to attack supply and ammo depots in Crimea and Russia.
Other innovations being developed by the Ukrainians out of necessity are AI generative autonomous drone navigation systems, completely independent of GPS communication and agnostic to the drone platform. In plain English, the navigation system allows the drone to fly without GPS guidance and therefore is immune to electronic jamming and because it does not emit electronic satellite signals—it is invisible. It is also able to launch without a trace back to its origin. If the drone is incapacitated or captured, the navigation box self-destructs, destroying collected intelligence.
How Does This Impact Putin’s Power?
Putin’s credibility continues to erode with the general population, siloviki, and the elite. (By “the elite” we mean government officials—technocrats—and business leaders.)
The “special military operation”, now an undeclared war and 18 months beyond what was to be its original completion date, continues with no end in sight. In the meantime, Russian citizens are increasingly experiencing the war. Ukrainian drones are now becoming a common occurrence beyond the frontline border towns. Drone attacks on Moscow, St. Petersburg, Voronezh, and other cities are forcing the closure of airports and rerouting of flights; GPS systems used for navigation and even ordering taxis are regularly jammed. Debris falling from the sky and exploding military targets are drawing public attention and occasionally resulting in dead civilians. These experiences do not instill a sense of domestic security in the general population nor do they project the perception of control over the war.
Putin’s inner circle, a collection of obsolete Soviet-era septuagenarians incapable of repurpose (unlike the agile S-200 missile systems), are also becoming more concerned by the direction of the war, as well as Putin’s erratic behavior. Drone attacks launched within Russia at Russian targets, as happened in Pskov, should set off security alarms of intelligence and military failures. Putin’s liquidation of Prigozhin in broad daylight—after an agreement had ostensibly been reached—suggests indecisiveness and unreliability. It is Putin’s decisive steady hand that keeps the power structure and system in place - this hand is weakening.
As for the elite who run the day-to-day business of the government, central bank, and businesses, their concern is what kind of country will they inherit from their Soviet-era predecessors? An economic disaster and pariah state, whose only friend is China? What can they do about this, if anything, and how?
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-Ups:
Prigozhin is buried without fanfare in St. Petersburg. Putin did not attend the private and heavily guarded funeral.
(Source: Olga Maltseva / AFP)
Quick Bites:
Russian Brain Drain
Russia is experiencing a brain drain of its top academics and scientists. Novaya Gazeta - Europe conducted a survey and found Germany to be the top relocation destination for Russian scientists and academics:
(Source: Novaya Gazeta - Europe)
Presidential Candidates Approved by Kremlin
According to Meduza, the Kremlin has approved presidential candidates to run in the March 2024 presidential election. So far, Communist Party Chairman Gennady Zyuganov, 79, and Liberal Democratic Party leader Leonid Slutsky, 55, have been approved.
Putin Confirms Meeting with Erdoğan
Putin will hold talks with Turkish President Erdoğan on (4 Sep) Monday in Sochi to discuss reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Vol 1, No 9 - BWR 01.09.2023
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