Dividing up the World — Leave Values at the Door
SIGNALING | SHAKEDOWN DIPLOMACY
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“Barbershop Whispers….Russia (BWR)” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by a discussion on the main topic. The last two BWR sections are “Follow-ups” on previous publications and “Quick Bites” on emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I discussed peace negotiations in realpolitik and the venue choice: Saudi Arabia instead of a traditional European city. Also, a young Russian dealmaker emerges from the shadows.
In this week’s BWR, I discuss Trump’s alignment with Russia and China at Ukraine’s expense.
Takeaways
WORDS MATTER—Trump has advocated U.S. territorial expansion. This fuels the territorial expansion desires of Russia and China.
VALUE PROPOSITION—It is difficult to quantify Trump’s exchange of allies for anti-Western states—Russia and China.
Dividing up the World — Leave Values at the Door
SIGNALING | SHAKEDOWN DIPLOMACY
SIGNALING
U.S. President Donald Trump has long advocated for U.S. territorial expansion—Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal—often disregarding international norms and alliances. In 2019, during his first term as president, he made an unsolicited enquiry about acquiring Greenland from Denmark. It should be noted that a 1917 right of first refusal purchase agreement exists between Denmark and the United Kingdom concerning Greenland. This situation could place the U.S. in direct conflict with the U.K., America’s oldest and most trusted ally. Initially, the Danes considered it an off-color joke, and in 2024, they realized it was not.
This year, during a press conference in the Oval Office, Trump referred to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the U.S. governor of the 51st state. On separate occasions, he pushed to take control of the Panama Canal, which the U.S. built and controlled until President Jimmy Carter returned it to Panama in 1979.
The Trump administration has based its territorial expansion desires on countering Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic and Latin America, where competition for rare earth minerals and control over new sea trade routes is intensifying.
The cumulation of these U.S. actions, along with Trump echoing the Kremlin’s false narratives—such as the claim that Kyiv instigated the war—fuels the territorial ambitions of Moscow and Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping interpret the U.S. actions as a green light to use their power and claim territory as they want, as long as it does not conflict with U.S. interests. For Russia and China, this translates to Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively. It may also be seen as a subtle message that Latin America falls within the U.S. sphere of influence. In short, a trade for client states.
SHAKEDOWN DIPLOMACY
Under the pretext of pursuing peace, the U.S. voted against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. This vote put the U.S. in alignment with Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and China. Instead, the U.S. proposed a competing resolution that failed to identify Russia as the aggressor and omitted references to Ukrainian territorial integrity; it simply called for a swift end to the “conflict” without assigning blame.
In the same week that the U.S. supported Russia at the U.N. at Ukraine's expense, Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House for what was meant to be the signing ceremony of a U.S.-Ukrainian agreement prioritizing U.S. interests in mining and monetizing rare earth minerals in Ukraine. However, the agreement resembled more of a memorandum of understanding than a comprehensive agreement. It lacked specifics regarding when and how the mining would begin, the amounts of investment, and the identities of potential investors. The identified rare earth deposits were based on Soviet-era surveys, and most of these mineral deposits were located within Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia. Nonetheless, the Trump Administration presented it as essential for securing future U.S. support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. More importantly for Trump, it represented a step toward peace negotiations with Russia.
Unfortunately, the Oval Office morning press event devolved into a reality TV shouting match reminiscent of those on the Housewives of LA. After the Oval Office shouting brawl, the lunch, signing ceremony, and press conference were canceled, and the Ukrainian delegation was asked to leave the White House.
The shouting match began at the end of the Oval Office press conference when Zelensky respectfully asked Vice President JD Vance to clarify “what kind of diplomacy is being offered with Putin”, to which Vance aggressively responded by berating Zelensky for his “lack of gratefulness to Trump.” That was followed by Trump lecturing Zelensky on the difficult time Putin has had because he was ‘wrongly’ accused of U.S. election interference and was poorly treated by the Biden administration.
CONCLUSION
It is difficult to understand and quantify what the Trump administration believes it will gain, both politically and economically, by aligning itself with Russia rather than America’s traditional allies concerning Ukraine.
It is also clear that the peace negotiations have stalled, and Trump will wrongfully blame Zelensky for the impasse. Without Ukraine on board, Russia has no one with whom to negotiate a peace deal. The Art of the Deal is quickly becoming the Art of Failure.
Additional Reading(s)
One Night in Riyadh & Ukrainian Peace (Barbershop Whispers…Russia 24 Feb 2025)
Bromancing to Peace (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 17 Feb 2025)
What’s in it for Me? (Barbershop Whispers…Russia, 8 Dec 2024)
Negotiating with Russia is Fraught with Peril (The Cipher Brief, 22 Feb 2025)
Follow-ups & Quick Bites
Follow-ups
No follow ups this week.
Quick Bites
Boris Spassky is Dead
Russian chess grandmaster Boris Spassky died at the age of 88.
Spassky, who became a French citizen in 1978, was the 10th World Chess Champion. He held the title from 1969 - 1972, when he lost it to American Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik in a contest later dubbed the “Match of the Century.”
Additional Reading(s)
Russian Chess Champion Dies (NPR, 03 Mar 2025)
Vol 3, No 09 - BWR 03.03.2025
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.
https://substack.com/@johnshane1/note/c-99654016