Dear BWR Subscribers,
“Barbershop Whispers….Russia” begins with “My Takeaways” on the main topic, followed by the main topic discussion. The last two sections of “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” are “Follow-ups” regarding previous publications and “Quick Bites” briefly addressing emerging events.
In last week’s BWR, I discussed Tucker Carlson’s interview with President Putin. Why Carlson, and why now?
In this week’s BWR, I will discuss the death of Alexei Navalny, the founder of the only effective grassroots opposition movement during Putin’s 24-year reign and probably his most feared critic. What happened and why?
Takeaways:
WESTERN ACCEPTANCE: Putin rules with complete impunity. He has long abandoned the idea of currying Western acceptance and legitimacy for his presidency. Putin no longer cares what the G7 and Western leaders think; he has moved on.
SOURCE OF POWER: Putin’s power derives from fear and control. Any opposition he cannot suppress will be snuffed out, be it in Russia or abroad. However, Putin’s apparent strength conceals paranoia and vulnerability. The approved slate of presidential candidates is a testament to both this control and his state of mind: no candidate other than Putin will receive more than 5% of the vote.
MARTYR: Navalny (and his family) have voluntarily sacrificed their lives for a better Russia. Putin cannot extinguish the infectious idea of a “Beautiful Russia Tomorrow”. Navalny may become more powerful and consequential now as a martyr - only time will tell. As one of Navalny’s friends and FBK leader told me yesterday, “We will carry Navalny’s torch with pride”.
What Happened?
Truth – Alexei Navalny was murdered by President Vladimir Putin on 16 February 2024.
Navalny died in IK-3, a high-security penal colony in the Arctic Circle village of Kharp, on 16 February 2024 while serving a 19-year criminal sentence on fabricated charges of fraud and embezzlement. Since Navalny’s voluntary return from Germany in 2021 — after recovering from an FSB assassination attempt — he has been held in the Russian penal system and moved from one gulag colony to the next. The last camp, IK-3 (sometimes known as “Polar Wolf”), is a high-security prison located above the Arctic Circle and is notorious for its poor medical facilities and harsh treatment of inmates.
As per Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN), Navalny “immediately lost consciousness” after a walk and could not be revived despite emergency medical attention provided by prison medical staff. Navalny’s mother and lawyer saw him in good health and spirits only two days before his death. He also appeared on video link in a court hearing the day before his death and appeared in good health and spirits, joking with the judge.
How is this possible?
Whether Navalny’s murder was a direct order from Putin, carried out by an ambitious security agent seeking to curry favor, or even the “routine” consequence of conditions in the camp, is irrelevant. Putin had him placed in the gulag system, and Putin is solely responsible for Navalny’s death.
The fact is that Putin, during his 24 years in power, has created and perfected an environment conducive to the persecution and death of Navalny and other political dissidents. Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister and another prominent opposition leader, was assassinated in 2015 a stone’s throw from the Kremlin – one of the most secure locations in Moscow.
Putin does not need to explicitly order assassinations or even prison sentences for his rivals; he only needs to label them as foreign agents, traitors, or undesirables. The wet work, prison sentences, and intimidation against those he singles out will be carried out by ambitious security agents, bureaucrats, or other parties currying favor from the Kremlin.
The 2016 case of a video posted online by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov — featuring opposition leaders Mikhail Kasyanov and Vladimir Kara-Murza in a rifle’s cross-hairs — is an example of this labeling. A few days after the video, Chechen assailants attacked and threatened Kasyanov at a Moscow restaurant. Today, Kasyanov lives in self-exile in Latvia, and Kaza-Murza is now serving a 25-year prison sentence in the IK-6 maximum security prison in Siberia. Kara-Murza’s crime? Referring to the Kremlin as a “regime of murderers”.
In short, high-profile assassinations, prison sentences, political persecution, and perpetual harassment are executed with the implicit and explicit approval of Putin.
Why Assassinate Navalny?
Putin and the Kremlin feared Navalny, even while he was in prison. This is despite the fact that nearly 23% of respondents “did not know” who Navalny is, according to a Levada Center survey in February 2023, a result significantly higher than in the same survey question from 2022, when 14% “did not know” him. Navalny was losing national name recognition. However, his public anti-war stance was also trending, with surveys polling more than 50% of the population wanting to see an end to Putin’s war sooner rather than later.
Navalny was the founder and leader of what was the most effective and sustainable grassroots organization — The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) – opposed to the Putin regime. However, a Moscow court declared the FBK an “extremist organization” in 2021. It was then ordered to cease activities and liquidate. FBK re-established itself outside of Russia.
Between its founding in 2011 and its ultimate closing in Russia in 2021, FBK established a network of regional offices across Russia manned by young professionals and volunteers. Navalny and his team communicated hope for a new Russia to young people in the provinces and urban cities through this network and social media platforms such as YouTube and Telegram. FBK conducted investigations into government corruption and posted their findings on these and other social media platforms. One of the most watched investigative broadcasts, “Putin’s Palace. History of the World’s Largest Bribe”, generated over 130M views worldwide, of which nearly 20M were in Russia. They also organized protests and implemented election campaign strategies through this network.
Navalny successfully exploited the growing generational gap between the Kremlin, young professionals, and university students to his advantage. His ability to effectively communicate and connect with them stemmed from a shared generation, his charisma, and his comfort with pressing the flesh. Navalny also earned respect through his status as a family man and a Russian patriot.
He often posted personal videos and pictures of himself and his family. This is in stark contrast to Putin who does not even acknowledge his daughters with his first wife, nor the rumored children from his paramour, Alina Kabayeva.
Why now?
Putin operates with complete impunity, so why not now? Unless aliens invade Earth, Putin will be re-appointed president in March. The only candidate with a materially different platform, Boris Nadezdin, a 60-year-old Kremlin insider running on an anti-war platform, has been denied standing and will not be on the presidential ballot.
Putin abandoned seeking Western legitimacy for his regime long ago. He has moved on and no longer cares what anyone thinks, especially G7 and leaders of “unfriendly” countries.
Putin is in a war for the survival of his regime and, effectively, his own life.
Follow-ups & Quick Bites:
Follow-ups:
Putin and Carlson On the Rooftop
Putin was not happy with the Carlson interview and was he was surprised by a lack of sharp questions from Tucker Carlson.
Putin said in an interview with Russian TV, he had wanted Carlson to be more aggressive.
"To be honest, I thought that he would behave aggressively and ask so-called sharp questions. I was not just prepared for this, I wanted it, because it would give me the opportunity to respond in the same way,"
Quick Bites
Mourners lay Flowers for Navalny
At the risk of arrest, mourners laid flowers at the Solovetsky Stone to mark the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. By Saturday evening, the monument to the victims of political repression was buried under a pile of flowers, with queues forming outside the nearest flower shops. Police allowed mourners to approach the stone one by one before demanding they leave immediately.
Vol 2, No 10 - BWR 18.02.2024
Thank you for reading “Barbershop Whispers....Russia” written by Adam A Blanco! “Barbershop Whispers…Russia” is a product of e8Q Technologies, a consultancy with insights on all things Eurasia. Subscribe for free to receive new posts.