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Takeaways from the Week

• Drone Wars – Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian oil and logistics infrastructure culminated in the halt of loading at the Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk—one of Russia’s largest Black Sea export hubs.

• Russian Business – Wildberries suspended loan repayments for merchants for the next three months after several warehouses were destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

• Diplomacy – Kazakhstan President Jomart Tokayev publicly called for a freeze on the Russo-Ukrainian War during a press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, only for the Kremlin to reject the framing outright—signaling the persistence of a war economy.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

Wildberries Freezes Merchant Loan Repayments for Three Months After Drone Strike on Yekaterinburg Hub [High]

Wildberries suspended operations and evacuated staff at its Yekaterinburg logistics facility after a Ukrainian drone strike. It then automatically paused merchant loan repayments through its in-house financial services for three months.

The move shields thousands of third-party sellers dependent on Wildberries credit but transfers the liquidity shock to the platform’s balance sheet and its fintech arm.

The freeze underscores how physical strikes on logistics nodes now propagate directly into domestic consumer-credit exposure. Separately, Wildberries stopped surfacing military goods under ‘все для СВО’ search queries, a reputational adjustment that does not change underlying sales channels.

Watch whether the payment pause is extended past October—an extension would signal deeper damage to warehouse throughput and marketplace cash flow.

Key Takeaways

• The war has come back to Russia, and it is small and medium-sized businesses that are paying the cost of the war. Watch for a post-October extension of the repayment freeze, signaling corporate-level flexibility in response to wartime realities.

• The strike-to-credit transmission mechanism shows how Russia’s domestic e-commerce and embedded-lending ecosystem bears war-risk exposure that also affects Central Asian cross-border sellers who rely on the platform.

Sources: Moscow Times

Energy & Minerals

◆ LEAD STORY OF THE WEEK

Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis Oil Terminal Halts Loadings Amid Ukrainian Drone Threat [High]

The Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk—one of Russia’s largest Black Sea crude and product export outlets—had not loaded a single tanker since Tuesday (21 Jul), as Ukrainian drone activity forced an operational suspension.

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Takeaways from the Week

• Drone Wars – Ukrainian drones struck a tanker at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, grain cargo ships in the Sea of Azov, Wildberries warehouses, and refineries last week, underscoring a shift in the intensity of the war.

• Economy – Reports are mounting about bank balance-sheet exposure as high rates and slow economic growth are resulting in higher loan default rates.

• Technology – Russian state-affiliated apps (MAX) disappeared from the Apple and Google Play app stores.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

Russia’s Wartime Credit Boom Raises Bank Balance-Sheet Risk as Repayment Stress Builds [Medium]

The Moscow Times reports that Russian banks are restructuring corporate and consumer loans that would otherwise be considered in default. High interest rates, expiration of subsidiaries, and a slowing economy are straining small and medium-sized businesses’ ability to service existing loans.

Separately, Sberbank issued the first loan under a new Bank of Russia/MSP Corporation subsidized-lending program (10 mln RUB to a Nizhny Novgorod plastics maker), signaling that the state is already deploying rate relief to shore up SME borrowers.

Key Takeaways

The government has launched a new subsidized-rate working-capital loan through Sberbank. A Nizhny Novgorod plastics producer was the first recipient.

Sources: Moscow Times · Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Energy & Minerals

◆ LEAD STORY OF THE WEEK

Drone Strike on Tanker NELSA at CPC Terminal Threatens Kazakh Crude Export Artery [High]

Kazakhstan’s energy ministry confirmed that overnight on 19–20 July, a UAV struck the tanker NELSA while it was loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk.

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Takeaways from the Week

• Drone Wars – Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems command struck 10 tankers and four ferries in Taganrog/Azov, as well as a grain-and-cargo seaport, over the weekend.

• Fuel Crisis — Regions from Lipetsk to Crimea have imposed retail gasoline rationing (30-liter caps and odd-even license-plate schemes), signaling stress in refineries and distribution.

• Russian Syrian Port – Moscow is advancing a mid-July commercial logistics hub at a Syrian port.

• Crimea –VTB has slashed ATM withdrawal limits in Russian-occupied Crimea by tenfold for third-party cards, signaling cash-management strain in occupied territory.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

Russian Regions Impose Gasoline Rationing [High]

Multiple Russian regions moved to ration retail gasoline this week, with Lipetsk Oblast capping single purchases at 30 liters and other regions introducing odd-even license-plate purchasing schemes. In Crimea, only 81 stations reported selling AI-95 and diesel. The measures point to acute downstream supply stress, consistent with refinery outages and constrained product distribution.

(Hot summer petrol queues are a recipe for short fuses.)

The rationing is directly linked to the maritime Ukrainian air strike campaign (see Energy) targeting refineries and logistics, tightening domestic fuel inventories even as crude export economics hold.

Key Takeaways

• Fuel rationing, the Russian government’s ban on fuel exports, and fuel imports are tightening fuel availability in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Watch for an extended fuel export ban beyond the end of July, and more citizens speaking out about the War.

Sources: Moscow Times · MK (mk.ru)

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Takeaways from the Week

• Drone Wars – Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and Baltic export terminals — including a major hit on the Vysotsk oil terminal in Leningrad Region on 3–4 July.

• Fuel Crisis – fuel shortages is impacting more than half the Country. Rationing in Sevastopol is weekly by QR code and capped at 20 liters.

• Fuel Export Ban – Partial export ban already in force through 31 July. Fuel imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan.

• Politics – Putin’s VTsIOM approval fell to 66.9% from 70.4% in a week, the sharpest drop since the 2022 invasion.

• US-Russia Relations – Trump and Putin spoke on 4 July about a possible Ukraine settlement ahead of the 7–8 July NATO summit in Turkey.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

LEAD STORY

Fuel Shortage Spreads as Russia Rations Gasoline and Imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan [Medium]

Russia’s gasoline shortage has forced rationing across more than half its regions. Sevastopol now sells fuel by weekly QR code, capped at 20 liters per person. To cover the gap, Russia is importing gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan; wholesale prices for Belarusian AI-92 delivered into Russia are up about 1.8x since early May.

A partial export ban on non-producers already runs through 31 July, and on 23 June Deputy PM Novak said the government is weighing a total diesel-export ban. Price caps are meant to hold retail prices down.

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Takeaways from the Week

• Fuel Shortages – The dominant development last week was the deepening domestic fuel crisis across the country, and in Russian-occupied Crimea.

• War – Ukrainian long-range missiles and drones are penetrating deep into Russia, setting refineries and weapons-production plants on fire.

  

• Domestic Politics – United Russia confirmed that Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin will head its State Duma list, and the death of OG silovik Sergei Ivanov marks a generational shift within the silovik old guard.

• Geopolitical – Lukashenko meets with Putin in Moscow amid Ukrainian threats. Lukashenko threads a needle but holds strong cards while the Kremlin is challenged to sustain the war against Ukraine.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

Irkutsk Declares Heightened-Readiness Regime, Caps Gasoline at 50 Liters/Day as Fuel Crisis Spreads to Moscow [High]

Irkutsk Region Governor Igor Kobzev introduced a heightened-readiness regime and restricted retail petrol sales to 50 liters/vehicle/daily, explicitly to avert an emergency declaration.

(A queue of vehicles waiting to for pertol in Novorossiysk.)

The petrol shortages caused by sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries (see Energy & Minerals — Refinery Strike Chain) are squeezing refined fuel output.

Key Takeaways

• Expect regional rationing to broaden and informal price pressure on retail fuel. Watch for renewed or extended gasoline/diesel export ban is the likely policy lever.

Sources: Interfax · RBC · Meduza

Energy & Minerals

◆ LEAD STORY OF THE WEEK

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Takeaways from the Week

• Economics & Privatization – The defining macro event was the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) key interest rate cut to 14.25%, a cautious 0.25 bps move that fell short of the 0.50 bps expected cut, signaling continued inflation concerns.

• Energy & Minerals – Volatility continues over Israeli strikes in Lebanon—reshaping Gulf crude flows and amplifying the geopolitical premium relevant to Urals discounting and shadow-fleet economics.

• War – Ukrainian drones struck the Tyumen (formerly Antipinsky) refinery, roughly 2,000 KM from the front, demonstrating deep reach into Russia and threatening supply chains to the front and oil infrastructure.

• Asset Redistribution – Chechen billionaire Ruslan Baisarov won the final state auction for Yuzhuralzoloto, completing a politically connected and motivated privatization process.

• Sanctions – The EU intensified pressure on Türkiye to halt the re-export of Russian gas, tightening the noose around the remaining European supply routes. No new Russia-related OFAC designations were announced this week.

This Week’s Five

Economics & Privatization

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Cuts Key Rate by 0.25 basis points (bps) to 14.25% [High]

The CBR’s rate cut fell short of the 0.50 bps analysts had broadly expected. The smaller move signals continued CBR concerns over inflation despite disinflationary momentum signals in the data. The cautious calibration disappointed corporate borrowers and rate-sensitive equities that had positioned for faster easing, while supporting the ruble’s carry appeal at current levels (USD/RUB ~73.44, ref., 19 Jun).

The triggers to watch are the next official inflation numbers and the CBR’s guidance language. The slower glide path favors holders of high-yield ruble deposits and OFZ.

Key Takeaways

• The CBR is balancing political and economic pressures over calls for lower interest rates and managing inflation as the budget deficit grows and employment is at a historic 2.2% low. The compromise was a 25bps cut versus the 50bp.

Regional Spillover: A slower Russian easing cycle keeps the ruble relatively firm, supporting Central Asian remittance corridors and trade settlement, while higher-for-longer rates constrain Russian import demand from regional partners and continue to strain small and medium-sized businesses as a larger share of their cash flows goes toward servicing interest expense on debt.

Sources: Moscow Times

Energy & Minerals

◆ LEAD STORY OF THE WEEK

Ukrainian Drones Strike Tyumen (Antipinsky) Refinery 2,000km From the Front and Crimea [Medium]

Ukrainian drones struck the Tyumen (formerly Antipinsky) refinery on 20 June, with debris falling on the plant’s territory ~2,000 KM from the front line, per Tyumen Governor Alexander Moor.

(Multi-million dollar Russian air defense systems are unable to neutralize a $100K drone. The US military is experiencing a similar situation in its war of choice with Iran.)

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Executive Summary

• Russian Fuel Crisis – In Russia, yes. Domestic fuel crisis intensified over the weekend with rationing (20–100 liters per purchase) across Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan and occupied territories. Can anyone say, Ukrainian Drones?

• Washington Moscow Chat –On 14 June 2026 Putin and Trump held a 55-minute ‘friendly and frank’ call covering Ukraine and Iran. What’s next?

• Shadow Fleet –UK Royal Marines boarded and detained the sanctioned Cameroon-flagged shadow-fleet tanker Smyrtos in the English Channel after it departed Ust-Luga on 5 June 2026.

• Oil Markets – Softened toward an eight-week low near $84/bbl on growing expectations of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development with major implications for Russian crude pricing and discounts.

ENERGY & SANCTIONS

Tatneft and Rivals Ration Gasoline Across Russian Regions [High]

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